Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 75
Jan. 10th, 2023 01:34 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ecosophia
As we proceed through the second year of these open posts, it's pretty clear that the official narrative is cracking as the toll of deaths and injuries from the Covid vaccines rises steadily and the vaccines themselves demonstrate their total uselessness at preventing Covid infection or transmission. It's still important to keep watch over the mis-, mal- and nonfeasance of our self-proclaimed health gruppenfuehrers, and the disastrous results of the Covid mania, but I think it's also time to begin thinking about what might be possible as the existing medical industry reels under the impact of its own self-inflicted injuries. So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before:
1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.
2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here.
3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue.
4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. Also, please don't drag in current quarrels about sex, race, religious, etc. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules.
With that said, the floor is open for discussion.
death rates
Date: 2023-01-10 06:56 pm (UTC)Last year the crude death rate in the US fell by ~7% last year but is still ~13% above pre covid/ vax crude death rates.
If mRNA induced immune system tolerance for covid is as bad as suspected ( some expecting the over 80 years olds having a ~60% higher chance of death ) we should see it there.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/uk-age-stratified-all-cause-death
I think (hope?) that by the end of this year we should have much more accurate expectations on the effects of covid and its vax.
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-10 07:41 pm (UTC)*one must assess full risk/reward to accurately gauge a medical intervention
*this bar is especially high for vaccines given to the healthy
*by may 2022 having ever taken a covid vaxx was associated with 22-74% greater all cause mortality vs being unvaccinated and this was true in ALL age stratifications.
*risk rates were still rising when publication of this data series was discontinued and could well be higher now
*some benefit against “death by covid” was still in evidence but was rapidly diminishing and was clearly either being miscounted or swamped by some other form of mortality.
*this implies deeply negative overall risk/reward from covid vaccines and raises pointed questions about their continued promotion and the processes by which they were approved. there was no age group in which they were associated with overall mortality benefit.
*ok, let’s dig in -
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-10 08:34 pm (UTC)"*by may 2022 having ever taken a covid vaxx was associated with 22-74% greater all cause mortality vs being unvaccinated and this was true in ALL age stratifications."
If that statement is true i would have expected this years crude death rate to be higher. It is still very elevated ~13% above pre covid pre vax, but down ~7% from the year before. So i am a bit skeptical about the size of the % increases that the bad cat is talking about.
if the crude death rate goes back up or stays the same this year, it would indicate to me that we have a big long term health crisis. If it goes down and keeps going down to pre covid pre vax times we only have to deal with the other predicaments.
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-10 11:00 pm (UTC)I keep trying to see where this pattern fits, or doesn't fit, with other countries and their vax vs. initial virus death rates, and can't make out any consistent patterns. Frustrating. So annoying when multivariate puzzles don't have simple and obvious answers!
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 12:24 am (UTC)Consider if there were 1000 people, and in 2019 10 would die, in 2022 12 would die if the crude death rate were to increase by 20%.
If in 2022, there are 1000 people and 800 are vaccinated, at 2019 mortality rates, 8 vaccinated and 2 unvaccinated die. If you had a hypothesis that the increased mortality is associated with the vaccinated group, and the unvaccinated had unchanged mortality, you would need to have 10 die in the vaccinated group, which is a 25% increase on the 2019 mortality rate.
Although it is a different comparison, it isn't actually very different as long as the vaccinated percentage is high, you would only get the big difference between changes to crude death rate, and relative risk of death between vaccinated/unvaccinated if the percentage of people vaccinated were lower, working under the assumption that only the vaccinated's mortality changes.
If vaccination were 50%, you would have 5 out of 500 die, and 7 of the other 500, i.e. the vaccinated group's relative mortality risk goes up by 40%, and the overall mortality risk goes up by 20%.
Mawkernewek
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-10 08:26 pm (UTC)https://nitter.net/destatis/status/1612770226088849409#m
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 03:23 pm (UTC)https://americanreveille.com/international/germany-breaks-pandemic-record-for-excess-deaths-despite-being-one-of-worlds-top-vaxxed-countries/
I really hope that this is just a random short term jump in the rate. But i fear that it is not.
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-12 06:10 am (UTC)https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3602202-europeans-risk-death-by-cold-for-green-folly-and-we-could-be-next/amp/
"A combination of utopian climate initiatives, inflation, a decline in American fossil fuel production, and an unwillingness to buy Russian oil or natural gas could lead to as many as several hundred thousand deaths across the continent this winter."
Historically excess deaths go up by 1.5% for every 1 degree celcius drop in temperatures. But this winter people are turning down thermostats because they simply can't afford it.
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-10 08:53 pm (UTC)Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 12:04 am (UTC)https://unglossed.substack.com/p/struggling-to-make-sense-of-the-egm
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 03:22 am (UTC)I quit at "Why no one has “noticed” the ONS “smoking gun” before (because it doesn’t show higher mortality):"
According to the OECD every country it tracks is showing excess mortality. This by itself is enough to convince me that Brian Mowery is just another tool in the propaganda toolbox.
https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/data-insights/excess-mortality-since-january-2020
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 04:23 am (UTC)fruitless. I stared at that chalkboard and understood nothing. Less than nothing. And I hadn't even signed up for the high school 'Drug Club' yet. So when I read his blog, and comments, I tried to get some 'feeling' for it all beyond the numbers. I tried to understand if it was of value in being 'fair minded' or bullshit. My feeling was 'this is all skittering sideways.'
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 12:51 pm (UTC)- the first pattern is that countries that had a high or low excess mortality from the virus, kept having that relatively high or low excess mortality during the first year of the vax. Only since Spring 2022 things have switched and countries that have low vax rates are now having the lowest excess mortality. With google translate you can read this article from Herman Steigstra who published a few days ago an article about this with a comparison of most European countries and who made a few nice and clear graphs to go with it: https://www.maurice.nl/2023/01/07/oversterfte-in-34-landen-falende-vaccins/
- the second pattern is that in the past excess mortality was highest in the eldest people and is now highest in the youngest age groups (in %). I mentioned it last month https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/210995.html?thread=37602867#cmt37602867 (Dutch data; Ed Dowd noted something similar in the USA).
The first two patterns suggest that the positive effect of the vax was very limited, if any, and that we are now in negative effectiveness territory. Pull-forward could be part of the explanation of the current low excess mortality in low-vaxxed countries, but doesn’t explain why the vax didn’t have much effect on the relative level of excess mortality per country in the first year after the start of the vax rollout. It seems to me that factors like state of the healthcare system and general health of the population were more important determinants of excess mortality in March 2020-April 2022 while currently we have entered negative effectiveness territory with some pull-forward effect added.
- the third pattern in the data is that at certain periods (Delta late 2021 and Omicron since September 2022) there is a pretty strong positive correlation between the amount of virus going around and excess mortality, but that C19 deaths do not come close to the amount of excess death. I mentioned this last week (https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/215249.html?thread=38183121#cmt38183121). I haven't seen any convincing explanation for this pattern although there is a lot of speculation.
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 07:46 pm (UTC)https://unglossed.substack.com/p/american-excess-mortality-does-not/comment/11795910
Overall I think Mowrey is just saying that there isn't an *obvious* signal of vaccine deaths in global all-cause mortality, especially over the shorter timescales immediately following mass vaccination which would be more of a smoking gun. Attempts to "prove" that the shots either are or are not causing excess deaths based solely on analysis of mortality data are going to be incomplete and involve a lot of cherry picking or questionable math.
All such analyses end up making broad assumptions, many of which will be wrong, thus they are one step up from models in terms of usefulness/uselessness. Although I don't think he is entirely correct, I appreciate Ethical Skeptic's analyses as they are more granular and attempt to partition excess deaths between multiple factors, e.g. this thread: https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1612191046636552199
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 09:21 pm (UTC)Life expectancy changes since COVID-19
this is a good article but no data from 2022 yet, only 2019 (base line),2020, and 2021.
Figure 2 in the article is interesting to see how covid effected the age groups in 29 countries.
Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-11 10:27 pm (UTC)Re: death rates
Date: 2023-01-17 05:45 pm (UTC)I wonder if Greta got vaxxed? She’s still kicking (literally). 😄
—Princess Cutekitten