Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 71
Dec. 13th, 2022 01:30 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before:
1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.
2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here.
3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue.
4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. Also, please don't drag in current quarrels about sex, race, religious, etc. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules.
With that said, the floor is open for discussion.
Something strange going on
Date: 2022-12-16 09:23 pm (UTC)Last week the excess mortality in the Netherlands jumped from 11.5% to 17.5%. This is a steep increase. There seems to be a structural change in trend according to a model predicting mortality that was developed by Herman Steigstra. Herman is part of the team of Maurice de Hond and is co-developer of Maurices model that predicted Covid infections and hospitalisations in the past two years. Their predictions actually resembled the reality in contrast to official RIVM’s models that usually missed the mark by a multitude. Anyway, Herman calculated that 1 in 250 persons dies from the vax and published weekly mortality prognoses based on the amount of vaxxinations per week (https://www.maurice.nl/2022/12/12/vaccinatiesterfte-gemodelleerd/). So far the model turned out to be quite accurate but since mid November there has been a structural change in the trend where mortality is higher than predicted. The cause of the extra mortality is unknown.
Here is the chart
Red = died with C19
Pink = died from C19
Dotted purple line = prognosis died from vax
Purple line = # vaxxinations / 100,000
I did a quick analysis of the mortality data published by CBS. The steep rise reminds me of the unexplained rise in mortality in October and November 2021. I’ve speculated before that the Delta vaiant was somehow involved despite C19 was just a fraction of total excess mortality. The sudden steep rise in mortality is similar (if this trend continues; it is early). Yet I found 1 unsettling difference with the mortality wave of a year ago: last year there was a clear correlation between excess mortality and age. The older the age group, the higher the relative excess mortality (in %, not absolute value). This time there is also a strong correlation with age group, but the other way around. The younger the age-group, the higher the % of excess mortality!!
Re: Something strange going on
Date: 2022-12-17 11:43 am (UTC)Latest weekly death info. here in the UK shows only 5% above 5 year average. I'm still feeling this is now all a reflection of the complicated inter-relationship heavily vixenated countries have had a big part creating between the 'not standing still' virus together with vaccine induced tolerance and (long term negative) immune response changes. It is not obvious but something's up.
Re: Something strange going on
Date: 2022-12-17 02:01 pm (UTC)Re: Something strange going on
Date: 2022-12-19 07:24 pm (UTC)Re: Something strange going on
Date: 2022-12-17 04:29 pm (UTC)-Translucent Jejune Octopus
Re: Something strange going on
Date: 2022-12-19 06:57 pm (UTC)I agree the young could very well have more incidence of myocarditis then the elder. As for the baseline, that's why I always look at the % to make comparisons between age-brackets.
Re: Something strange going on
Date: 2022-12-17 05:38 pm (UTC)