Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 108

[ecosophia]

We are now in the third year of these open posts. As the phrase "died suddenly" repeats in the mass media like a mantra, statistics for work days lost to illness and all-cause mortality mount up in heavily vaccinated nations, and more and more ugly facts about the official response to Covid spill out into public, we are entering what may well turn out to be the most difficult period of the Covid disaster -- the phase in which denial rises in lockstep with the death rate, and a great many people try not to admit what has been done to them by the people and institutions they trusted. It could get ugly, folks.

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before: 

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here. 
 
3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue. 

4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. Also, please don't drag in current quarrels about sex, race, religions, etc. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules. 

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.

Comments

Re: Some mask reflections

[dendroica]

Being surrounded by PMC liberals, I can confidently say that most of them don't *like* masks at this point, in the way that they did back in 2020-21 when masking was the cool thing to do. There is a very small minority (<5%) who still wear masks religiously and who will probably lead the call for a return to mandates so they can feel "safe".

The PMC liberals that I know would grudgingly return to masking if they were asked to or if they felt at high risk of infection - since most of them still believe that masks work - but they've also become more responsive to local indicators like hospitalizations, deaths, severe illness in their own social circles, etc. vs. following the media.

Put simply, I don't think that a rehash of The Great Fearmongering of 2020-21 is possible with this virus at this time, even if it does start killing people at substantially higher rates. From my perspective, if people return to acting really frightened this fall and winter, it will be because they truly have something to fear this time rather than because The Experts told them to Be Very Afraid.

Re: Some mask reflections

[methylethyl]

I hope you're right!

Re: Some mask reflections

[escorcher]

I think any fear that a rise in deaths/hospitalisations creates will get mixed and combine with other crises etc. that come up. I'd agree it's less likely to end up being as 'focused' as 2020/21.

Rintrah's latest thoughts are interesting I think because he differentiates himself from GVB. He sees a likely slow build of more serious disease due to ongoing infections of different serotypes rather than the 'sudden switch' prediction of GVB:

https://www.rintrah.nl/serotype-evolution-how-dengue-became-so-deadly/

"Rather, I’m expecting that with multiple simultaneously circulating serotypes, we will just see a rapid deterioration of the situation."

He makes a fair case and the rise of the newest BA.2 is a little concerning, albeit not immediately, as in it's current form it's probably not spreading quickly:

https://twitter.com/yunlong_cao/status/1697318194976010446

'1) BA.2.86 is antigenically distinct compared to XBB.1.5.
2) BA.2.86 can significantly escape XBB-infection/vaccination induced antibodies.
3) However, the infectivity of BA.2.86 may be much lower than XBB.1.5 and EG.5.'

This also concerns:

https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1697729433917084080

'Real Time August Disability Data from BLS has held on to highs from June. Even more disturbing is Employed Men accelerated in July & Employed Women hit new all time high in August. For some reason the employed rate of change is worse than overall. Any guesses?'