JMG on Breaking Down: Collapse Podcast

[ecosophia]

For your listening pleasure, here's my latest, with Kory and Kellan on the Breaking Down: Collapse podcast. It was a good lively conversation on the cheery theme of the decline and fall of the industrial age. Click here and enjoy!

Comments

[open_space]

*click, click, click*

(That’s a very good image btw)

[(Anonymous)]

Fantastic discussion, John. Thank you.

--David BTL

[michaeliangray]

Great interview as always.

I reached out to Kory and Kellen back around episode 3 or 4 to see if they knew of your work. They were well ahead of me. I suspected as much as they seemed to be proposing 'long decent' level issues. Suggested reaching out to you and I'm glad they did.

Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[(Anonymous)]

I listened to your podcast. Excellent. I’ve recommended it to several people I know who, in the past, might have refused to listen. But now, sitting here in the cold, in the dark, collapse suddenly looms very close.

Why, yes, I live in Texas. How did you guess?

I think this storm is going to be a wake-up call for many. Even CNN dared to question the stability of the current system:
The headline is telling: “This is not how modern life is supposed to work.” And the final paragraph: “And we've all got to think about the systems that make our lives run and think about what we'll do when they fail. Because it increasingly feels like they will.”
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/17/politics/what-matters-february-17/index.html
(Interesting. They’ve changed the headline to make it sound slightly less whiny. Now it reads “The Texas crisis is not the way modern life is supposed to work.”)

Anyhow, I owe you some thanks. Have been reading your stuff since the archdruid days. We’ve already collapsed quite a bit. So, what did I do to prepare for the storm? Made sure I had plenty of drinking water, covered the hose bibs, and bought a little extra catfood. Because everything else was already in place.

We’ve been among the lucky ones: our local utility is of course participating in the rolling blackouts, so we have electricity about 50% of the day, reasonably spaced. Is it fun? Not especially. Am I upset/depressed/afraid? Nope. Because I knew these things would start happening. Because I long ago gave up the idea that humans will always be in control. Because collapse is something I’ve accepted, mentally and emotionally. And I have you to thank for that.

“collapse now and avoid the rush”? Too late....The rush has already begun.

As for the current storm, It ain’t over yet. There’s another round of snow on the way and they’re saying the blackouts may last thru Friday. But I personally am much better prepared for that than I would have been before I started reading the spells of an archdruid. Again, I thank you

O.E.P

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[ecosophia]

I'm glad to hear that your preparations worked! My working guess -- which I'll be expanding on in an upcoming post -- is that we're going to see a lot more of the same sort of thing. In Texas this winter as in California over the last two summers, what's happened is that a ongoing decrease in the resilience of technological infrastructure is slamming face first into an ongoing increase in the volatility of the environment...and the result of that collision is that more and more of us, more and more often, are going to have to take care of ourselves without asisstance from that increasingly ghostly presence called "modern life." Stay safe and warm!

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[(Anonymous)]

Overall, I agree, but I think the collapse could have been delayed if the U.S. had paid any attention to its infrastructure.

—Lady Cutekitten

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[ecosophia]

Of course -- but societies in rapid decline always neglect their infrastructure. Archeologists look for that as a marker of the onset of the terminal period of a dead society.

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[(Anonymous)]

In which case we've been in the terminal period for at least 15 years now, which strikes me as a useful reminder of how slow history unfolds when measured against the pace of daily life.

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[ecosophia]

We have indeed. The terminal period usually lasts a century or two.

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[hearthspirit]

Our civilisation did something dumber than most, though, and built most of its infrastructure at gargantuan scale all at once, and really handed over our beer on the concept of insurance.

My municipality entered the pandemic in very good fiscal shape, no tax increase over 2% in ages, stuff could be fixed at projected taxes and growth projections, and we had lots of savings. I didn't think the US infrastructure disease would hit us for a decade or more. Now, without federal aid we'd have been looking at an 11% tax increase this year. Unforeseen policing and firefighting costs skyrocketed due to insurance requirements for apartments and condos, and standardized federal safety requirements (even small town stations must be built to withstand vehicular terror assault). The fact we can't fill our vacancies doesn't make up for the staggering equipment costs - 1/3 municipal budget, and we share our forces with other small municipalities.

Still, with that federal covid aid the tax increase is considered too high by several politicians. The problem is, we cannot seem to lower it, as there are no large projects that can be deferred - everything was built around 1970-1980, so multiple large sewer mains need replacement all at once. Not a problem, until covid sapped the coffers...

Next election term, maybe even next budget cycle, we won't be able to prevent a crushing tax increase or loss of services people will notice. And already, we get letterss complaining that a curb here or there hasn't been painted yet, it was supposed to be fine in August! What have the staff been doing?? Well.. The emergency... That pandemic thing?

They have no idea the circus taking time - a lot - away from actual jobs.

It will be swift and ugly...

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[(Anonymous)]

That's just it: most people cannot get their minds around the fact that we need to downshift: what was doable five years ago is not today, and the sooner we get to work adjusting our expectations, the better off we'll be. But most people cannot handle that idea yet, and until that changes, we're not going to be able to do anything constructive about our situation.

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[ecosophia]

Depends on what you mean by "we." Collectively as an entire society, sure, but you and me and the other readers of this journal? There's an enormous amount that we can do right now, and the sooner we get to work on it, the better.

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[hearthspirit]

As an individual trying to influence your local town, you also still have enormous power simply by being one of the Powell's who submits comment to council and the local paper. There are about a dozen people in my popn 12k region who have outside influence simply because they submit feedback on all the public comment issues. A few people writing letters against the latest boondoggle or with sensible support for things to cut at budget time - even just mentioning words like contraction, recession, slow down, instead of (barf) 'make this the best city' or whatever - will have outside influence.

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[lincoln_lynx]

No doubt our leaders will allocate paltry resources for infrastructure repair while stimulating Fortune 500 executives' bank accounts.

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[(Anonymous)]

Our so-called “leaders” are busy jetting off to Cancun while their people freeze and starve (Ted Cruz, I’m looking at you...)

Those who rush to excuse him saying a senator can’t do anything but make an appearance of concern are wrong. How much did those plane tickets cost? How many blankets and warm meals could he have given people with that money?

Re: Collapsed a while back to avoid the rush

[(Anonymous)]

I think what's happening in Texas marks a major turning point: it's getting a ton of attention, and while much of it is absurd, it looks like we may have reached the point where it's impossible to ignore the fact that reality is not doing what our society's myths say it must do.

I think we have a few more years before as a society we get around to doing anything constructive, but I think flat denial of the mess we're in might be ending.

It's Not a Problem (Now)

[(Anonymous)]

Hi, JMG

Less than 3 minutes into the episode you sum up exactly the attitude that I ran into in 1984: that whatever limits we may face are not in our lifetime.

Story: Economics class, discussing macroeconomics and the embodied need for percentage growth per year. That is, a need to maintain exponential growth or we fall apart. I understand the exponential function, and I couldn't believe the professor didn't. When I questioned him about the incongruity between the doctrine of exponential growth and an obviously finite planet, he wholeheartedly agreed with me, but then gave a shrug and dismissed it, "Oh, that's a long way in the future. They can deal with it then."

That was the end of all discussion. 20 years ago, the Greens were the only political organization that accepted the premise of the Limits to Growth, but quickly realized that would relegate them to permanent political oblivion, with the cold comfort that, sitting in the ruined future, they were right. That and a couple of dollars will buy a cup of coffee...

I also note that most of the subsequent publications by the same Club of Rome have ignored their own research.

I guess no one really wants to tell the public what the public needs to hear when they need to hear it, either because they honestly don't believe it, or because they don't want to lose their government pensions until they have to.

Bruce
AKA Renaissance Man

Re: It's Not a Problem (Now)

[(Anonymous)]

Well, it was probably not a problem in his lifetime.

John of Red Hook

[booklover1973]

Yes; here in the middle of Germany, last week a large amount of snow fell, and public transit stopped for a few days. But there was no blackout and since I'm living not far from the city center, I could nevertheless get groceries. In Germany, there is now considerable uncertainty and frustration how to end the second lockdown; shopkeepers are becoming increasedly unsatisfied about the situation.

[(Anonymous)]

It's the same situation here in the lowlands of Holland. And the frustration and dissatisfaction is slowly growing.

It feels like something is brewing beneath the surface.

- Spork -

[booklover1973]

I don't know if something is brewing or not, but in the next ingress chart there is a Saturn-Uranus square, which in mundane astrology has a baneful meaning for governments, something in the nature of a fall. In Germany, there are Bundestag election in the autumn. But I would be very astonished if anything happens at all, the nature of modern democracies considered.

[(Anonymous)]

Interesting.

Our elections are on March 17th. Exactly one month after the first Saturn/Uranus square.

- Spork -

[(Anonymous)]

I get the distinct feeling that things are brewing under the (mass-media) surface here in the U.S. as well. The GameStop campaign continues apace (I've been lurking the apes' GME forum on Reddit) and the "trodden-on" classes will undoubtedly think of many other ways to "strike back" now that elections have been proven in their eyes to be a sham.

From the podcast-- very enjoyable, by the way-- I have a comment on the question of whether the U.S. will end up more like "Retrotopia" or more like "Dark Age America". It may depend on which region you are looking at. Flyover country has been "crashing now" for years if not decades, and may do better in the future than other areas.

From the CNN articles quoted, the Texas situation sounds like a major clue-by-four upside even the leadership's heads. I wonder how many Texans will be investing in Franklin stoves and other off-grid backup methods in the future. Backyard chickens are already a thing, since the 2008 crash.

- Cicada Grove