Bubble Point Death
Jul. 8th, 2021 11:02 pm
I need some help from those of my readers who know their way around the science of oil production. Recently -- tip of the druidical hat to the r/peakoil subreddit -- encountered a discussion of Scott LaPierre's theory of bubble point death, which explains the sharp and unexpected declines in oil shale wells. The short form, if I understand it correctly, is that once a certain amount of oil is extracted, the pressure drops to the point that natural gas dissolved in the oil fizzes out of solution, and the remaining oil doesn't have enough pressure to get to the well. What I need to know is whether his theory makes sense. (It looks plausible to me but I'm not a petroleum engineer.) If he's right, the bottom is going to fall out of US oil production a lot sooner than most people in the industry are anticipating -- and that's something worth knowing about in advance.
Here are his articles:
Bubble-Point Death and the PXD Oil Mix Challenge, Part One
Bubble-Point Death and the PXD Oil Mix Challenge, Part Two
Wall Street Journal Validates Predictions Made by Controversial Bubble-Point-Death Articles
Controversial Theory Proven Valid as ‘Bubble-Point Death’ Rages across Midland Basin Despite Three Years of Industry Denial
Do these make sense? Inquiring peak oil writers want to know.