Based on what I read, yes, the CO2 is not the most important greenhouse gas. In fact, water vapor has that title. So why don't we worry about water vapor? Because it's a dependent variable mostly. But CO2 (or other GHGs) can act as a trigger, bringing more water vapor which raises the temperature, which brings more water vapor and so on...
Because climate involves many exponential cycles like the above, it's very hard to predict.
Another example: in previous warming periods, CO2 was a lagging indicator (based on ice core samples). So what triggered warming? Milankovich cycles mostly, but who knows.
The point I am trying to make is that this is a complex system so I don't believe when people are absolutely certain. Climatologists have their models that they trust more than actual real-life data, and that's crazy.
But also, being certain that we cannot have a runaway greenhouse effect is just as crazy. For one thing, the Sun is emitting more radiation as time passes so the same amount of carbon causes more heating. The other aspect is that "hothouse Earth" (which happened before so obviously can happen again) might not be hospitable for large land mammals.
I don't worry about it though - it is small probability and not much I can do about it.
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branchandroot
Re: Asteroid impacts 65,000,000 years later...
Date: 2022-05-15 02:56 pm (UTC)In fact, water vapor has that title.
So why don't we worry about water vapor? Because it's a dependent variable mostly.
But CO2 (or other GHGs) can act as a trigger, bringing more water vapor which raises the temperature, which brings more water vapor and so on...
Because climate involves many exponential cycles like the above, it's very hard to predict.
Another example: in previous warming periods, CO2 was a lagging indicator (based on ice core samples). So what triggered warming? Milankovich cycles mostly, but who knows.
The point I am trying to make is that this is a complex system so I don't believe when people are absolutely certain.
Climatologists have their models that they trust more than actual real-life data, and that's crazy.
But also, being certain that we cannot have a runaway greenhouse effect is just as crazy. For one thing, the Sun is emitting more radiation as time passes so the same amount of carbon causes more heating. The other aspect is that "hothouse Earth" (which happened before so obviously can happen again) might not be hospitable for large land mammals.
I don't worry about it though - it is small probability and not much I can do about it.