Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 5

[ecosophia]

The semi-open posts  I've hosted here on the Covid-19 narrative, the inadequately tested experimental drugs for it, and the whole cascading mess surrounding them have continued to field a huge number of comments, so I'm opening another space for discussion. The rules are the same as before: 

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here. 

3. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules. 

With that said, the floor is open for discussion. 

Comments

Re: Minor Hockey League making vaccines Mandatory in Ontario

[(Anonymous)]

In case this is helpful for communicating with the hockey league:

An actuary passed this along, back of envelope numbers using CDC and VAERS numbers. (Personally I think the harm numbers are likely to be an underestimate, because many side effects of novel treatments take a while to show, such as automimmune diseases, and are unlikely to be statistically associated with the triggering event because of systemic flaws in pharmaceutical evaluation. Read Ben Goldacre's 'Bad Pharma' for a whistle-stop tours of some of the problems. But here are her numbers.) Usually I would expect a vaccine to be seen as safe if at least 100 x safer than the disease, 10 x might be seen as acceptable in a particularly vulnerable population.

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Here are links (one was scrubbed from their website, but appears to have returned) to the CDC report on myocarditis/pericarditis.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/03-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf p8

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/05-COVID-Wallace-508.pdf p32

HOSPITALIZATION DUE TO COVID VACCINE Page 32: The CDC predicts that fully vaccinating 1 million male 12 to 17 year olds would prevent 5,700 cases, 215 hospitalizations and 2 deaths from COVID.

Number Needed to Treat (to prevent 1 COVID disease hospitalization). 1 Million/215 = 4651

Page 8: .2% of 12-15 year olds (and also of 16 to 25 year olds) required hospitalization and/or emergency room treatment after their 2nd Pfizer dose and .1% after the 1st Pfizer dose. Assuming 1st dose and 2nd dose hospitalizations/ER are not mutually exclusive (worst case scenario) Number Needed to Harm = 1/.2% = 500

OR assuming mutually exclusive categories and the .1% rate applies to ALL who received the 1st dose Total (hospitalized/ER on 1st OR 2nd dose) = .3%

Number Needed to Harm = 1/.3%, 333

Based on VAERS, "hospitalizations" account for a little more than 1/3 of the total of "hospitalizations or ER". (July 2, 2021 VAERS in age group 6 to 17: 718 hospitalized +1211 ER only = 1929. 718/1929 = 1/ 2.6 or 1/3 in round numbers. Thus, an adjustment factor of 3 was applied to the NNHs to derive a comparable basis. So, NNH is between 999 and 1500 for hospitalization. Note: There was no separate categorization between male and female, so this "unisex" version is used for both male and female.

Thus, the Pfizer vaccine is 3 to 5 times more likely to cause a 12 to 17 year old male to be hospitalized, than CDC predicts it will prevent hospitalization from the disease itself. (3 from 4651/1500 and 5 from 4651/999, rounded)

Page 32: The CDC predicts that fully vaccinating 1 million female 12 to 17 year olds would prevent 8,500 cases, 183 hospitalizations and 1 death from COVID.

Number Needed to Treat (to prevent 1 COVID disease hospitalization). 1 Million/183 = 5464

For 12 to 17 year old females, the Pfizer vaccine is 4 to 5 times more likely to cause hospitalization than CDC predicts to prevent it, by similar calculations. (4 from 5464/1500 and 5 from 5464/993, rounded)

DEATH WITH COVID VACCINE Using the CDC's figures on 'at least partially vaccinated' as of July 2, 2021, VAERS death data as of July 2:

Number Needed to Harm = 8,123,243 at least partially vaccinated/14 COVID vaccine deaths = 580,232

Male Number Needed to Treat (to save 1 life) = 50,000

Female Number Needed to Treat (to save 1 life) = 1,000,000

So 12-17 year old males are only 16% less likely to die from COVID, than their vaccine. Females aged 12-17 years old are 72% MORE likely to die from their vaccine than COVID itself. (16% from 500,000/580,232 and 72% from 1,000,000/580,232)

Re: Minor Hockey League making vaccines Mandatory in Ontario

[(Anonymous)]

Thank you for this information. I can use it as further evidence of concern if I get a dialogue going with the minor hockey governing body. Both males and females play hockey in this league.