I agree with your distaste about making "predictions". I gave up on them years ago. Now I just kinda try and compute the odds. And even then I hedge as much as possible.
Right now, I would guess that we have around a 30% chance of a "bad moon a-risin'". This particular SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) value has been rising of late, but now I am trying to analyze whether this is a valid analysis or I am letting the silliness of the political world get to me.
Who knows for sure. I think that the best you can do is better calibrate your expectations to the reality unfolding.
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branchandroot
Predictions are dicey things
Date: 2024-05-19 03:20 pm (UTC)Right now, I would guess that we have around a 30% chance of a "bad moon a-risin'". This particular SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) value has been rising of late, but now I am trying to analyze whether this is a valid analysis or I am letting the silliness of the political world get to me.
Who knows for sure. I think that the best you can do is better calibrate your expectations to the reality unfolding.
Just leave yourself an out in case you misjudge.