This week I did my monthly review of the numbers and largely the same trends are in place as for the past months.
In the Netherlands, excess mortality rose from around par (0%) to over 10% in week 10 and 11 (start March 6th). This indicates that another wave of excess mortality is starting. This comes at the heels of the last wave Corona virus that started on Jan 23th and peaked on March 7th. This confirms the usual pattern where excess mortality rises and falls with the waves of the Corona virus with a time lag of a few weeks. Apparently the timelag for the variant of the last wave was a bit more than usual, but it seems that excess mortality is now responding to the increased virus prevalence in Feb.
A new development is that a new wave already started on March 15th. The descending part of the previous wave was only halfway at that date, but since then the amount of virus in the sewage has been rising. It remains to be seen if this is due to the new variant from India that is rumoured to be more virulent. It happened only twice before that a new wave was already rising while the previous hadn’t completed its cycle. This was when Omicron replaced Delta and when the first Omicron variant was replaced by the second Omicron variant.
The English data on the causes of mortality are only available till Feb 24th. England had no excess mortality from late January till that moment, just as the Netherlands. Still there is excess in the category “at home” and in the category liver diseases. This suggests that more than expected people died suddenly, and would be congruent with the hypothesis that excess mortality is caused by damage done by spike protein (please note that we would expect a significant mortality deficit if everything was fine, so mortality being on par with the expectation based on the statistical model is in fact not so good as it sounds.)
So the trends that I’ve reported here since at least last December are continuing. I’m not sure if it is helpful to repeat myself, but they are: - Excess mortality moves in waves - The waves follow (usually with a few weeks time lag) the waves in the prevalence of the Corona virus as measured by sewage data - The English data show excess mortality in categories that are associated with spike damage, and no excess mortality in categories not associated with spike damage (cancer being the only exception) - Thus it still looks like excess mortality is mainly caused by cumulative spike exposure
PS The big question is how the vaxxed and unvaxxed fare compared to each other. Unfortunately comparative data are treated by the governments and agencies with a secrecy on par with Biden’s nuclear codes. I can only infer something by comparing high vaxxed and low vaxxed countries that are otherwise as similar as possible. In the EU Portugal (highest vaxxed) and Bulgaria (lowest) are interesting. Here I also see the same pattern that I already mentioned before: the unvaxxed countries had higher excess mortality, but since spring 2022 the tables are turned. In early February Portugal was around 0% while Bulgaria had a mortality *deficit* of 19%. The deficit is of course the “pull forward effect”: after the most vulnerable members of the tribe have died, one would expect a period of lower mortality. So far there has only been significant pull forward effects in low-vaxxed countries but non in high vaxxed countries. This suggests that after initial “success” we are now still in the territory of negative vaxx effectiveness. Again, this has all been said before, but it might be helpful to report that the latest data are still in line with the earlier findings and conclusions.
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branchandroot
The latest trends in excess mortality
Date: 2023-03-29 12:44 pm (UTC)In the Netherlands, excess mortality rose from around par (0%) to over 10% in week 10 and 11 (start March 6th). This indicates that another wave of excess mortality is starting. This comes at the heels of the last wave Corona virus that started on Jan 23th and peaked on March 7th. This confirms the usual pattern where excess mortality rises and falls with the waves of the Corona virus with a time lag of a few weeks. Apparently the timelag for the variant of the last wave was a bit more than usual, but it seems that excess mortality is now responding to the increased virus prevalence in Feb.
A new development is that a new wave already started on March 15th. The descending part of the previous wave was only halfway at that date, but since then the amount of virus in the sewage has been rising. It remains to be seen if this is due to the new variant from India that is rumoured to be more virulent. It happened only twice before that a new wave was already rising while the previous hadn’t completed its cycle. This was when Omicron replaced Delta and when the first Omicron variant was replaced by the second Omicron variant.
The English data on the causes of mortality are only available till Feb 24th. England had no excess mortality from late January till that moment, just as the Netherlands. Still there is excess in the category “at home” and in the category liver diseases. This suggests that more than expected people died suddenly, and would be congruent with the hypothesis that excess mortality is caused by damage done by spike protein (please note that we would expect a significant mortality deficit if everything was fine, so mortality being on par with the expectation based on the statistical model is in fact not so good as it sounds.)
So the trends that I’ve reported here since at least last December are continuing. I’m not sure if it is helpful to repeat myself, but they are:
- Excess mortality moves in waves
- The waves follow (usually with a few weeks time lag) the waves in the prevalence of the Corona virus as measured by sewage data
- The English data show excess mortality in categories that are associated with spike damage, and no excess mortality in categories not associated with spike damage (cancer being the only exception)
- Thus it still looks like excess mortality is mainly caused by cumulative spike exposure
PS The big question is how the vaxxed and unvaxxed fare compared to each other. Unfortunately comparative data are treated by the governments and agencies with a secrecy on par with Biden’s nuclear codes. I can only infer something by comparing high vaxxed and low vaxxed countries that are otherwise as similar as possible. In the EU Portugal (highest vaxxed) and Bulgaria (lowest) are interesting. Here I also see the same pattern that I already mentioned before: the unvaxxed countries had higher excess mortality, but since spring 2022 the tables are turned. In early February Portugal was around 0% while Bulgaria had a mortality *deficit* of 19%. The deficit is of course the “pull forward effect”: after the most vulnerable members of the tribe have died, one would expect a period of lower mortality. So far there has only been significant pull forward effects in low-vaxxed countries but non in high vaxxed countries. This suggests that after initial “success” we are now still in the territory of negative vaxx effectiveness. Again, this has all been said before, but it might be helpful to report that the latest data are still in line with the earlier findings and conclusions.