1) I focus on data rather than predictions, and on data that can be matched with real-world confirmations. For example, the fact that marine freight is now going from Asia to Europe along the northern coast of Russia every summer shows conclusively that sea ice is in fact much less widespread than it was a century ago.
2) The thing Yarvin et al. don't seem to have noticed is that paleoclimatology does not justify apocalyptic predictions. The Earth has been much, much warmer than it is today -- that's easy to demonstrate from geological traces -- and it's also had much more CO2 in the atmosphere than it does now -- again, there are plenty of good proxy measurements. It's precisely because paleoclimatology doesn't justify the current narrative, except in narrow, cherrypicked cases, that I take it seriously. As a rule, look for data that doesn't fit the narrative and you can be more confident in it.
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branchandroot
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Date: 2022-05-15 05:19 pm (UTC)2) The thing Yarvin et al. don't seem to have noticed is that paleoclimatology does not justify apocalyptic predictions. The Earth has been much, much warmer than it is today -- that's easy to demonstrate from geological traces -- and it's also had much more CO2 in the atmosphere than it does now -- again, there are plenty of good proxy measurements. It's precisely because paleoclimatology doesn't justify the current narrative, except in narrow, cherrypicked cases, that I take it seriously. As a rule, look for data that doesn't fit the narrative and you can be more confident in it.