Now that I've thought about it a little more, I guess the first thing to check would be: if you imagined a typical situation where someone knew where a currency exchange market was going to be some months in advance, but didn't make the corresponding trades, would there be some small marginal effect where some small increment of extra wealth would tend to fail to be produced over the next few years, because resources (or liquidity?) weren't correctly allocated as much or as far in advance as they could have been, across the countries in question? (Then you could think through well-being effects after thinking through that wealth effect.) I don't have great economic intuition here, but probably the situation with countries will prove to be analogous to a situation where there were companies that had unusually fluid mechanisms for issuing or selling stocks.
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branchandroot
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Date: 2023-08-08 03:55 am (UTC)Now that I've thought about it a little more, I guess the first thing to check would be: if you imagined a typical situation where someone knew where a currency exchange market was going to be some months in advance, but didn't make the corresponding trades, would there be some small marginal effect where some small increment of extra wealth would tend to fail to be produced over the next few years, because resources (or liquidity?) weren't correctly allocated as much or as far in advance as they could have been, across the countries in question? (Then you could think through well-being effects after thinking through that wealth effect.) I don't have great economic intuition here, but probably the situation with countries will prove to be analogous to a situation where there were companies that had unusually fluid mechanisms for issuing or selling stocks.