I just read through it. The first part is spot on, and highlights something that has been missing from most analyses. The US CDC may have inadvertently uncovered the same trend a few weeks ago when they published a report finding 3x lower rates of non-covid death in vaccinated people. If unvaccinated people are on the whole less healthy - especially among older age groups more likely to die - then that creates a bias that makes the vaccines appear to be effective when they're not.
As for the future predictions:
I'm rather less concerned about original antigenic sin and antibody-dependent enhancement. I think these things are occurring and will continue to occur, resulting in a prolonging of the pandemic and an increase in total deaths vs. a no-vaccination situation. However, at this point I would be surprised if that ended up in mass-death territory. The virus simply is not harmful enough on its own, and most deaths result from an immune overreaction. At this point it does not appear that vaccination makes this sort of immune overreaction more likely, and in fact it may well make it less likely.
The vaccines do not magically homogenize the human immune response. Although it is spike-only and thus less robust than whole virus, it's worth noting that there are only two proteins (spike and nucleocapsid) on the surface of the virus in total, and also that the exact anti-spike antibodies induced by the vaccine will vary substantially between individuals.
I don't think the vaccines worked in the US south any better than in Scotland due to the presence of more unvaccinated people. I think the US south just experienced a summer wave which is likely at that latitude and also occurred in 2020 - quite possibly associated with widespread use of air conditioning and comparably limited ventilation.
From my current perspective, if we have mass death ahead of us - and I still see that as a possibility - it is less likely to derive from immunological failure of the vaccines (weakened immunity and/or directed viral mutation) and more likely to derive from delayed effects of repeated prolonged spike exposure (clotting -> heart disease and cardiovascular issues, possibly neurological effects as well) and repeated genetic vaccination possibly inducing tolerance of aberrant cells and thereby reducing detection/destruction of nascent cancers.
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branchandroot
(no subject)
Date: 2021-11-15 10:13 pm (UTC)As for the future predictions:
I'm rather less concerned about original antigenic sin and antibody-dependent enhancement. I think these things are occurring and will continue to occur, resulting in a prolonging of the pandemic and an increase in total deaths vs. a no-vaccination situation. However, at this point I would be surprised if that ended up in mass-death territory. The virus simply is not harmful enough on its own, and most deaths result from an immune overreaction. At this point it does not appear that vaccination makes this sort of immune overreaction more likely, and in fact it may well make it less likely.
The vaccines do not magically homogenize the human immune response. Although it is spike-only and thus less robust than whole virus, it's worth noting that there are only two proteins (spike and nucleocapsid) on the surface of the virus in total, and also that the exact anti-spike antibodies induced by the vaccine will vary substantially between individuals.
I don't think the vaccines worked in the US south any better than in Scotland due to the presence of more unvaccinated people. I think the US south just experienced a summer wave which is likely at that latitude and also occurred in 2020 - quite possibly associated with widespread use of air conditioning and comparably limited ventilation.
From my current perspective, if we have mass death ahead of us - and I still see that as a possibility - it is less likely to derive from immunological failure of the vaccines (weakened immunity and/or directed viral mutation) and more likely to derive from delayed effects of repeated prolonged spike exposure (clotting -> heart disease and cardiovascular issues, possibly neurological effects as well) and repeated genetic vaccination possibly inducing tolerance of aberrant cells and thereby reducing detection/destruction of nascent cancers.
Mark L