ecosophia | Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 75

As we proceed through the second year of these open posts, it's pretty clear that the official narrative is cracking as the toll of deaths and injuries from the Covid vaccines rises steadily and the vaccines themselves demonstrate their total uselessness at preventing Covid infection or transmission. It's still important to keep watch over the mis-, mal- and nonfeasance of our self-proclaimed health gruppenfuehrers, and the disastrous results of the Covid mania, but I think it's also time to begin thinking about what might be possible as the existing medical industry reels under the impact of its own self-inflicted injuries.

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before:

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here.

3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue.

4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. Also, please don't drag in current quarrels about sex, race, religious, etc. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules.

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

I haven’t looked into Brian Mowrey’s argument at depth, but my bias is that a lot can be discerned by looking at simple trends and correlations while being aware of the usual data-shenanigans that obscure the view. When it comes to the excess mortality data there are a few trends that are imo real and tangible and give important clues about what’s going on.

- the first pattern is that countries that had a high or low excess mortality from the virus, kept having that relatively high or low excess mortality during the first year of the vax. Only since Spring 2022 things have switched and countries that have low vax rates are now having the lowest excess mortality. With google translate you can read this article from Herman Steigstra who published a few days ago an article about this with a comparison of most European countries and who made a few nice and clear graphs to go with it: https://www.maurice.nl/2023/01/07/oversterfte-in-34-landen-falende-vaccins/

- the second pattern is that in the past excess mortality was highest in the eldest people and is now highest in the youngest age groups (in %). I mentioned it last month https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/210995.html?thread=37602867#cmt37602867 (Dutch data; Ed Dowd noted something similar in the USA).

The first two patterns suggest that the positive effect of the vax was very limited, if any, and that we are now in negative effectiveness territory. Pull-forward could be part of the explanation of the current low excess mortality in low-vaxxed countries, but doesn’t explain why the vax didn’t have much effect on the relative level of excess mortality per country in the first year after the start of the vax rollout. It seems to me that factors like state of the healthcare system and general health of the population were more important determinants of excess mortality in March 2020-April 2022 while currently we have entered negative effectiveness territory with some pull-forward effect added.

- the third pattern in the data is that at certain periods (Delta late 2021 and Omicron since September 2022) there is a pretty strong positive correlation between the amount of virus going around and excess mortality, but that C19 deaths do not come close to the amount of excess death. I mentioned this last week (https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/215249.html?thread=38183121#cmt38183121). I haven't seen any convincing explanation for this pattern although there is a lot of speculation.

Edited 2023-01-11 16:54 (UTC)

I made a comment on Mowrey's latest piece that generated some discussion:
https://unglossed.substack.com/p/american-excess-mortality-does-not/comment/11795910

Overall I think Mowrey is just saying that there isn't an *obvious* signal of vaccine deaths in global all-cause mortality, especially over the shorter timescales immediately following mass vaccination which would be more of a smoking gun. Attempts to "prove" that the shots either are or are not causing excess deaths based solely on analysis of mortality data are going to be incomplete and involve a lot of cherry picking or questionable math.

All such analyses end up making broad assumptions, many of which will be wrong, thus they are one step up from models in terms of usefulness/uselessness. Although I don't think he is entirely correct, I appreciate Ethical Skeptic's analyses as they are more granular and attempt to partition excess deaths between multiple factors, e.g. this thread: https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1612191046636552199

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01450-3#data-availability

Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

this is a good article but no data from 2022 yet, only 2019 (base line),2020, and 2021.

Figure 2 in the article is interesting to see how covid effected the age groups in 29 countries.

Can appreciate vixen affected patterns are hard to tease out with all this. Not helped by things like overstretched healthcare services, strikes by staff (ambulance workers here in England today) and cold weather together with some people not heating their homes well due to rising costs. I can confirm UK has seen a rise in excess death percentages in the last 2 weeks of 2022, especially in private homes (latest stats here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending30december2022 )

Edited (Extra info. ) 2023-01-11 22:30 (UTC)

Speaking of simple trends, I’m noting that even the presstitutes are more frequently reporting the sudden deaths of young, apparently healthy people. Sooner or later someone’s going to remember the old-fashioned idea of the “scoop” and start interviewing doctors and funeral directors. I think most Americans will just shrug and go about their business, but I can see righteous fury rising in Asia and Europe.

I wonder if Greta got vaxxed? She’s still kicking (literally). 😄

—Princess Cutekitten

Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 75

Re: death rates

Re: death rates

Re: death rates

Re: death rates

Re: death rates