Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 202

[ecosophia]

We are now approaching the end of the fourth year of these open posts. When I first posted a tentative hypothesis on the course of the Covid phenomenon, I had no idea that discussion on the subject would still be necessary all these years later, much less that it would turn into so lively, complex, and troubling a conversation. Still, here we are. Crude death rates and other measures of collapsing public health are anomalously high in many countries, but nobody in authority wants to talk about the inadequately tested experimental Covid injections that are the most likely cause; public health authorities government shills for the pharmaceutical industry are still trying to push through laws that will allow them to force vaccinations on anyone they want; public trust in science is collapsing; and the story continues to unfold.

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before:

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry and its government enablers are causing injury and death on a massive scale. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its wholly owned politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here. 
 
3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue. 

4. If you plan on making off topic comments, please go away. This is an open post for discussion of the Covid epidemic, the vaccines, drugs, policies, and other measures that supposedly treat it, and other topics directly relevant to those things. It is not a place for general discussion of unrelated topics. Nor is it a place to ask for medical advice; giving such advice, unless you're a licensed health care provider, legally counts as practicing medicine without a license and is a crime in the US. Don't even go there.

5. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. Also, please don't drag in current quarrels about sex, race, religions, etc. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules. 

6. Please don't just post bare links without explanation. A sentence or two telling readers what's on the other side of the link is a reasonable courtesy, and if you don't include it, your attempted post will be deleted.

Please also note that nothing posted here should be construed as medical advice, which neither I nor the commentariat (excepting those who are licensed medical providers) are qualified to give. Please take your medical questions to the licensed professional provider of your choice.

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.  

Comments

Re: correlation and causation

[ecosophia]

Ah, but you've left out the next step, as people using this argument generally do. It's true that correlation doesn't prove causation, but it can indicate causation. The next step is to look for evidence that would confirm or deny the possibility of causation.

For example, you might look at populations of children who inhabit the same ecosystem as the rest of us but have not been as heavily vaccinated as others, and see whether they have a lower rate of autism and other conditions correlated with high vaccination levels. (Spoiler: yes, such populations have lower rates. You might have a look at the stats for Amish children, who inhabit the same heavily polluted Ohio River watershed as their vaccinated neighbors, but have lower rates of these conditions at statistically significant levels.)

There are other such populations -- I encourage you to look this up for yourself, so you can be sure I haven't just pointed you to gimmicked studies. Here as elsewhere, it's crucial to use "correlation does not prove causation" as a spur to further investigation, not as a defensive tactic meant to stop inquiry in its tracks.

Re: correlation and causation

[slyoung1]

That's absolutely the case. if we don't take that next step, we're just conspiracy theorists.

I'm familiar with these studies, and familiar with studies that appear to contradict these studies. So far as I can tell without becoming a researcher myself, this isn't a decided cause and effect yet - we have some clues, we have suspicions, and can say that there is almost certainly some common cause for the increase in autism incidence. Vaccines are a suspect for sure, but may or may not be the only suspect, and may or may not be operating in combination with some other cause.

The problem with the Amish children example is that there are so many differences in those children's environments that saying any one cause generates any one outcome is very difficult. In fact I actually grew up in that heavily polluted watershed and live here today, so this isn't the first time I've heard the Amish population used to demonstrate some theory or other. It seems likely (but not certain) to me that there IS a cause and effect relationship but it's unlikely to be a single cause, and probably not a single effect either, and you know that these many to many relationships get very troublesome to unravel.

I'm not actually arguing for vaccines, to be clear. I'm suspicious of anything championed for my "health" by the medical industrial complex. It's just that I'm equally suspicious of evidence that says we both live in the Ohio river valley and Joe is autistic and I'm not, and I'm not vaccinated ergo...

Re: correlation and causation

[ecosophia]

And yet if Joe is autistic and you are not, and he was exposed to known neurotoxic agents (such as thimerosal) while you were not, and there are whole population groups on Joe's side of the line and on yours, with similar outcomes -- why, then, insisting that the whole issue remains completely up in the air makes you run the risk of being, not a conspiracy theorist, but a coincidence theorist. (As usual, the opposite of one bad idea is another bad idea.)

There is, after all, a middle ground between conclusive proof and a shrug that signals "We have no idea." Most human decisions are made in that middle ground. Here we have a galaxy of childhood health crises soaring in frequency in lockstep with the increase in childhood vaccinations; we have populations that did not receive those vaccinations and do not have that increase in symptoms; and of course none of the recently added vaccines had anything approaching adequate safety testing.

That doesn't constitute proof, but it does justify a presumption that the increase in the vaccine schedule is the place to look first for potential causation -- and the precautionary principle argues that a sharp pruning of the childhood vaccination schedule would be reasonable, and likely to provide conclusive proof in short order.