ecosophia | Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 202

We are now approaching the end of the fourth year of these open posts. When I first posted a tentative hypothesis on the course of the Covid phenomenon, I had no idea that discussion on the subject would still be necessary all these years later, much less that it would turn into so lively, complex, and troubling a conversation. Still, here we are. Crude death rates and other measures of collapsing public health are anomalously high in many countries, but nobody in authority wants to talk about the inadequately tested experimental Covid injections that are the most likely cause; ~~public health authorities~~ government shills for the pharmaceutical industry are still trying to push through laws that will allow them to force vaccinations on anyone they want; public trust in science is collapsing; and the story continues to unfold.

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before:

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry and its government enablers are causing injury and death on a massive scale. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its wholly owned politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here.

3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue.

4. If you plan on making off topic comments, please go away. This is an open post for discussion of the Covid epidemic, the vaccines, drugs, policies, and other measures that supposedly treat it, and other topics directly relevant to those things. It is not a place for general discussion of unrelated topics. Nor is it a place to ask for medical advice; giving such advice, unless you're a licensed health care provider, legally counts as practicing medicine without a license and is a crime in the US. Don't even go there.

5. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. Also, please don't drag in current quarrels about sex, race, religions, etc. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules.

6. Please don't just post bare links without explanation. A sentence or two telling readers what's on the other side of the link is a reasonable courtesy, and if you don't include it, your attempted post will be deleted.

Please also note that nothing posted here should be construed as medical advice, which neither I nor the commentariat (excepting those who are licensed medical providers) are qualified to give. Please take your medical questions to the licensed professional provider of your choice.

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

Childers points out an interesting blip in today's C&C:

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/sudden-and-unexpected-thursday-july

It's a mishmash of news items, so if you scroll past the Trump/DeSantis stuff, what you're looking for is the bit about Centene, and the one after it about Social Security. He's making some logical leaps here, but in a data environment where official sources HAVE this data but aren't releasing it, this is what we're reduced to: looking at proxies like actuarial tables, insurance company data, etc.

This is the story he's linking to:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/centene-crashes-after-pulling-2025-guidance-unexpected-risk-adjustment-results

Anyway, Centene is a huge managed care company, that just had to report a massive $$ loss, because... "Lower-than-expected market growth" and "Much higher aggregate morbidity than Centene had assumed for its risk adjustment revenue" or as Childers puts it: "The crash was caused by devastating new actuarial data showing that Centene’s Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) enrollees are sicker, costlier, and fewer than expected, especially in 22 states where Centene holds significant market share." i.e. they are dealing with medicare and medicaid populations. "lower than expected growth" means fewer people signing up. In this economy, in that program, the only answer to that is "fewer customers exist" Childers leaps to the conclusion that they "suddenly and unexpectedly" departed from the insurance pool, and he admits this is a speculative leap. More confirmation needed.

I kind of wonder if recent immigration enforcement and DOGE activity have not also contributed here. Could we be seeing some fraud beneficiaries jumping ship before they get arrested? I don't have a good enough grasp on the financials to say.

Anyway, he notes that, tellingly, a similar, parallel, and supporting-evidence thing also just happened with a sharp dip in Social Security payouts.

Again, I'm not sure there's any real way for laymen like us to disentangle the effects of "sudden and unexpected" from "we better stop using our dead grandma's SS card before the auditors come".

It's an interesting set of datapoints either way.

Having pondered it a few minutes, would like to add:

Personally, I think the timing makes it more likely that this is a fraud issue than a vax issue. If you're a medicare contractor, and you've been dealing with a non-trivial chunk of, say, people fraudulently using Grandma's social security benefits even though she died ten years ago, or 'undocumenteds' using the social security numbers of people who (as we know) didn't get deleted from the computer system when they died... you've effectively got a bunch of 90-110yo clients who are actually... 20-60yo people impersonating someone else. If this has been going on for a long time, then this will have a distorting effect on the stats of any company contracting for medical care/insurance of this population. 45yos don't have the same health problems as 90yos. If, then, some political shift happened that made these people feel much less comfortable about using someone else's SS number... and they backed out of the arrangement quietly, hoping nobody would notice... would it look like this, in the data?

I'm watching this very carefully to see if other indicators less vulnerable to fraud-related issues trend the same way.

You, me, and all the other data geeks ;)

This is frustrating in exactly the same way as trying to track down the vax-->birthrate/miscarriage/neonataldeath stats. US data has always been chaos on these things, but there are governments that definitely HAVE THIS DATA. Everywhere with a modern, socialized medical system: Scandinavia, Canada, UK... they know. The numbers are in. And they are withholding that information. And it is deeply frustrating that no mainstream outlets are even interested. We're all poring over some study out of the *Czech Republic* of all places, trying to extrapolate. The most promising stats are coming out of Japan right now. Best guess: not in English, and not in our alphabet, makes it harder for the googlebots to censor. Treasure trove if you read Japanese...

The last five years have been blindingly enlightening on the subject of media and government propaganda.

So here we are, trying to get a look at the real picture by peering through weird little cracks that nobody had the time or resources to plug up-- trying to sketch out a legible portrait from the shape of an ear, a brief glimpse of hair, a description from a witness in a dim alleyway... In the Age of Data, how did we ever end up in this spot?

Because "data" isn't "information." A case could be made, in fact, that once a threshold of quantity is passed, more data becomes the inverse of information -- that is, noise.

methylethyl— Thanks for your comments here. I always appreciate your comments.

I can't resist saying it: If a government has the data and that same government is withholding it from the public, that strongly suggests the data must be damning indeed.

Cetiosaurus

Great minds flock together.

Regarding the Japanese data, if you are aware of sites that have relevant information, I am happy to poke around a bit.

I tried to look up some data on the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare's website. This is the site I looked at, which has general demographic statistics and includes births, deaths, stillbirths, etc.

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai24/dl/gaikyouR6.pdf

Japan's population has been declining for some time, and I don't have a background in statistics, so it is hard to know what an abnormal acceleration would be. There isn't anything about vaccination status on that site.

I used to track the MHLW site that listed the adverse reactions, but I could no longer find it and I don't know if it is even around anymore.

I didn't find much by just googling Corona vaccine, deaths, stillbirths, etc.

One nice thing on the MHLW site is that it says that taking the corona vaccines is completely voluntary and people are not compelled to take it. There is a request not to force others to take it or to discriminate against those who don't. There is even a place to reach out to if people experience harassment or bullying at the workplace..

I'm noticing a ton of houses on sale nearby. I live in a heavily vaxxed and fairly elderly area, and so if they are dying or being forced into nursing homes, that's one way it would show up....

Having read the Coffee and Covid article, the one thing that stands out for me is the jump in Social Security claims for January-April of this year. The May drop off looks more like a correction of sorts for the moment. The next few months will tell the story – if the drop off continues (in any form; even a reduced rate of reduction is a reduction), then the die-off looks to have started.

– Donald Hargraves

I have been pondering that as well. Not just the drop off, but the radically anomalous Feb-April rise. Since previous years all show a spike in January and then almost nothing the rest of the year... does that represent a change in how the office is processing requests? Something administrative maybe?

Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 202

Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals

Re: Data Signals