methylethyl: (Default)
methylethyl ([personal profile] methylethyl) wrote in [personal profile] ecosophia 2025-05-01 06:58 pm (UTC)

Re: Anecdata

Totally apart from all the obvious fraud in that market, the boomers are the big homeowners, and they are dying off (assisted by the ESGs no doubt). A lot of the market inflation sort of counted on them staying in their oversized suburban houses forever. Bound to be some scrambling to hide that inconvenient fact, by people heavily invested in the whole houses-appreciate-forever myth. Expecting aggressive data fraud.

That said, we now have some experience with the patterns and perils of data fraud... if that's taught us anything, it's that you can hide the direct, naked numbers like death stats and cause-of-death data, but you can't fake everything all at once and the reality leaks out in weird places, like insurance companies and cell phone data, utility company usage, that sort of thing.

So what interesting datasets might help us poke at the real numbers of empty houses, if MLS is gaming the numbers?

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