ecosophia: (Default)
John Michael Greer ([personal profile] ecosophia) wrote2022-11-08 01:46 pm

Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 66

Smudge for the winAs we proceed through the second year of these open posts, it's pretty clear that the official narrative is cracking as the toll of deaths and injuries from the Covid vaccines rises steadily and the vaccines themselves demonstrate their total uselesness at preventing Covid infection or transmission. It's still important to keep watch over the mis-, mal- and nonfeasance of our self-proclaimed health gruppenfuehrers, and the disastrous results of the Covid mania, but I think it's also time to begin thinking about what might be possible as the existing medical industry reels under the impact of its own self-inflicted injuries. 

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before: 

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here. 
 
3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue. 

4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. Also, please don't drag in current quarrels about sex, race, religious, etc. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules. 

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.     
methylethyl: (Default)

Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

[personal profile] methylethyl 2022-11-14 12:42 am (UTC)(link)
https://jessicar.substack.com/p/whats-going-on-with-births-down-under

This popped into my inbox today. Looks like Australia's published births numbers for 2021, and... you really need to see the charts for yourself. That looks dramatically worse than what's going on with births numbers in Europe and the US, and it starts earlier, too.

I don't entirely trust JR as a source, and I'd *like* for someone else to look at that and tell me that is some kind of graph voodoo making it look worse than it really is, OR that Australia simply has a dramatic data-lag problem and it's gonna take another six months for them to actually tally all the births for 2021 accurately, so that dropoff is simply an artefact of slow reporting.

I don't know. Is what she's reporting real? If so, it's... what the heck?

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

[personal profile] fredsmith11 2022-11-14 06:34 am (UTC)(link)
I track Australian deaths as the ABS regularly publishes updates (currently +17.3%). ABS birth data is less granular, but available here for 2021 and is compared to preceding years: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/2021

At an overview level things look OK, as it says:
Key statistics
- There were 309,996 registered births in 2021, an increase of 15,627 (5.3%) from 2020.
- For all Australian women, the total fertility rate was 1.70 births per woman.
- For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, the total fertility rate was 2.34 births per woman.

It doesn't split the year into periods, so you can't see what the Q4 2021 figures are.

The ABS often publishes interim data for a period then updates the figures as the data is finalised (some data arrives late). Perhaps someone got hold of an interim dataset, as a 70% drop is so massive it seems impossible to hush up.

However, having said that Dr Luke McLindon was fired from the Mater Hospital in Brisbane hospital in June 2022, as he was going public about a 70% miscarriage rate in vaxxed women there vs the normal 13-15% rate that he said still prevailed in unvaxxed women. The Mater Hospital denied that statement and said miscarriage rates were normal.

It's a question of waiting and watching. Personally, I'm not expecting good news.

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

(Anonymous) 2022-11-14 09:23 pm (UTC)(link)
Taken at face value this does look like a radical fall, so I'm not expecting good news either.

We've had a generation of baby boomers, are we now in for a generation of 'baby busters'?

The Ninth Mouse

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

(Anonymous) 2022-11-14 07:31 am (UTC)(link)
Holy shale!

That is quite a dramatic graph there.

Terrible.

The Ninth Mouse

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

[personal profile] boccaccio 2022-11-14 11:18 am (UTC)(link)
It seems most likely that there is a data-lag. Australia started to vaxx people in the fertile age-group only in June-August 2021. In other countries the decline in births starts to decline 9 months after that moment. If births really started to decilne in November 2021, then Australia has a very different pattern then other countries. It will be woth watching the numbers, but for now the most likely explanation seems to be lagging data
methylethyl: (Default)

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

[personal profile] methylethyl 2022-11-14 04:58 pm (UTC)(link)
That is what it looks like to me-- like what you'd see on most US health-data charts for whatever the most recent two weeks on the chart is: i.e. the time period they don't have full counts for yet. But it does seem odd to be that far behind on reporting. Is JR looking at an out-of-date dataset? Is AUS just really, really slow reporting? Is there really something there? A little of each?

Only time will sort it out, I guess.

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

(Anonymous) 2022-11-14 10:42 pm (UTC)(link)
They could have had a different pattern in when they vaxed pregnant women.

Given the high rates of issues or "no data" in vax trials in pregnant women, I would expect some of the pregnant-when-vaxed to have lost their babies.

Often this is more likely the earlier in pregnancy that you vax. A location which waited till past 30 weeks before vaxing pregnant women might have a different result than one that allowed or encouraged it in early-mid pregnancy.

Plus a lot of places had low uptake among pregnant women even when it was offered to them.

Did Australia have higher uptake among women in early-mid pregnancy, or offer it sooner to them? In June-August 2021, women due in November 2021 would have been in the second trimester.

-Ochre Shabby Sea Serpent

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

(Anonymous) 2022-11-14 11:59 pm (UTC)(link)
She checked in at the soure:

https://jessicar.substack.com/p/update-on-whats-going-on-with-births

It is, in fact data lag. The question is though, why such a profound lag? Are they trying to slow roll the data release for any reason in particular?
methylethyl: (Default)

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

[personal profile] methylethyl 2022-11-15 02:52 am (UTC)(link)
Ok, well I'm relieved that it's data lag, but yes, it's been nearly a year since the end of 2021. Why aren't those numbers in yet? I certainly wouldn't rule out the theory that there's something they're reluctant to release, and it's being dragged out as long as possible.

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

[personal profile] fredsmith11 2022-11-15 08:18 pm (UTC)(link)
Birth data appears to lag deaths, not just in Australia.

E.g. here's the latest data from the UK: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2021

"There were 624,828 live births in England and Wales in 2021, an increase of 1.8% from 613,936 in 2020, but still below the 2019 figure (640,370); 2021 remains in line with the long-term trend of decreasing live births seen before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic."

That passing mention of "the long-term trend of decreasing live births" is a reference to the demographic timebomb facing most developed countries.

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

(Anonymous) 2022-11-15 09:19 am (UTC)(link)
Well, I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that the good folks at BDM have not been overwhelmed by a sudden spate of marriages that they need to process certificates for :)

If I had to guess, I'd say the star performers from the Births Branch have been poached to help deal with a sudden glut of certificates in another branch.

It's one agency, and it only has three subject areas to produce certificates for, so. . .

Hmmmm, I think I'll just leave it at that and let everyone do the kind of math that you don't need a chart for.

The Ninth Mouse

Re: Jessica Rose, Australia Births Numbers

(Anonymous) 2022-11-14 02:38 pm (UTC)(link)
I like how a lot of people thoroughly verify these people while still ignore their messages, while 1 year ago, none of the mainstream verified and brought the waxxines to forefront, amazingly what some grants, advertisment money or commissions do.