Well, you are correct that the weighing up of "the odds" is personal to each punter, and that is why, in the honest world of book-making, the punter knows that when you place your bet it may win, BUT it may lose... You never walk into a bookmakers without knowing that you may lose your shirt (should you decide to wager it)...
In the dishonest world of drugs, we are continually offered "odds" that are: 1) statistically gamed to oversell potential benefits and undersell potential harms... 2) presented as the "prudent" thing to do; or as the socially conscious and unselfish thing to do... 3) aimed at training us to see ourselves as bundles of risk that we are responsible for managing well...
...and that dishonesty prevents us from detecting that (whenever we are speaking of those classes of drugs aimed at prevented a feared disease, or lowering a risk factor), we have entered a casino, where the house always wins.
Re: 24-5 flu vaccine study
In the dishonest world of drugs, we are continually offered "odds" that are:
1) statistically gamed to oversell potential benefits and undersell potential harms...
2) presented as the "prudent" thing to do; or as the socially conscious and unselfish thing to do...
3) aimed at training us to see ourselves as bundles of risk that we are responsible for managing well...
...and that dishonesty prevents us from detecting that (whenever we are speaking of those classes of drugs aimed at prevented a feared disease, or lowering a risk factor), we have entered a casino, where the house always wins.