ecosophia: (Default)
John Michael Greer ([personal profile] ecosophia) wrote2023-06-27 12:40 pm

Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 99

Great ResistAs we proceed through the second year of these open posts, it's pretty clear that the official narrative is cracking as the toll of deaths and injuries from the Covid vaccines rises steadily and the vaccines themselves demonstrate their total uselessness at preventing Covid infection or transmission. It's still important to keep watch over the mis-, mal- and nonfeasance of our self-proclaimed health gruppenfuehrers, and the disastrous results of the Covid mania, but I think it's also time to begin thinking about what might be possible as the existing medical industry reels under the impact of its own self-inflicted injuries. 

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before: 

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here. 
 
3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue. 

4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. Also, please don't drag in current quarrels about sex, race, religions, etc. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules. 

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 01:36 pm (UTC)(link)
Week 99! I am preparing a pizza party on the astral for week 100...

Dear JMG and forumistas,
Thank you, thank you, and thank you again.
Cetiosuarus

Abusive relationships

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 02:29 pm (UTC)(link)
Sometime back, perhaps last year, someone here asked if anyone still had a link to a chart showing how our governments were in an abusive relationship with us. I could not find it at the time, but naked emperor just posted something that might be what was wanted:

15 Signs That You Might Be In An Abusive Relationship...

https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/15-signs-that-you-might-be-in-an?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=602373&post_id=131660899&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

Myriam

Re: Deagel ‘Depopulation’ Website Debunked

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 03:12 pm (UTC)(link)
Maybe because I first saw it here, I always considered it satire.

https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2020/12/world-satanic-society-2020-year-end.html?m=1#more

Funny read now in light of our twists and turns since early 2021.

[personal profile] escorcher 2023-06-28 04:23 pm (UTC)(link)
With the original hypothesis post it is 100 weeks this week, but 101 and 103/4 seem like fair reflection points too (2 year mark).

I'm not sure how much wiser I'm feeling, though I'm pretty good at misplaced arrogance spotting these days!

Re: The Good and the Ungood

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 04:27 pm (UTC)(link)
That's a great JMG quote!

Pallid Gaseous Worm

Re: Convoys

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 04:31 pm (UTC)(link)
A group of people sat at Kremlin for a brainstorming session. They also invited the billionaire founder of a troll factory.

"Folks, we need to do something that gets the attention of people in USA and Canada."

"The biggest recent event US politicians have been talking about for 3 years was an armed insurrection in DC."

"The biggest recent event Canadians are talking about was the trucker's march to Ottawa."

"Let us combine them and do a armed trucker's march to Moscow."

Priggy called the scriptwriters at his troll factory to get the script written.

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 05:56 pm (UTC)(link)
How many more open posts on Covid will there be, do you think?

Will we get to 200? 1,000?

Re: The Good and the Ungood

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 06:41 pm (UTC)(link)
Wow, thanks Martin for pointing this essay out and of course to JMG for writing it. Even though it's about environmental activism, it is so relevant to today's multiple crisis.

Whether it's a ternary or unary we need to move to, I'm not sure, but it seems clear we need to avoid this strong pull to make everything binary.

We seems to have a ternary model where we see the 'evil' elites are manipulating the hapless masses who believe the manipulations of the BS MSM machine, and we are the heroic bearers of truth trying to 'red pill' the masses. And once we succeed in attaining a critical mass of 'red pilled' normies, we will unite and the 'evil' elites will pay for their crimes.

Or is it perhaps we see ourselves in a binary of vexxers vs no-vexxers? The ultimate goal to eliminate the other?

Or should we move to a unary and acknowledge that the multiple crisis of Western Civ today was brought about by the actions of all Western Civ. Accept that these problems are our collective problem and we need to come together to solve it without divisions?

Lots to ponder here.

flu mixed up with COVID

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 06:43 pm (UTC)(link)
I am also wondering about the Flu being mixed up with cases of COVID. We know that they cycled PCR tests so long that any minute amount of COVID genetic material could be detected, did not mean that is what the person was sick with. They did not test for influenza or other illnesses but with that minute bit of COVID genetic material detected just called it COVID. Does not mean that the illness and symptoms were from COVID.

A data point is that in October of 2019 my college student offspring became very sick, and it was long lasting, a few weeks later when my offspring came to visit me, I caught it, this is November 2019. For what we knew of typical virus this should have been past the window of being contagious when off spring gave it to me. Offspring was a student at UC Davis in CA, so between SF and Sacramento, students started back in general end of September and came to campus from all over the world and states.

I had thought for a while that it was "early COVID" that we had. But, offspring has told me that in early COVID, when the Red Cross was desperate for blood donations, and the public was leery of contaminated blood supplies. that offspring donated blood to the Red Cross and the Red Cross did a blood test on it and reported back to offspring that there were no antibodies to COVID in offsprings blood. So, it was not COVID. Offspring has finally convinced me of that.

Whatever it was, it was very nasty. That November 2019 illness is the sickest I can remember being. I finally had an "official" case of COVID a few months ago, January 2023 which was so much milder than whatever I had in Nov. 2019. The case my offspring had was even worse. Not only was offspring very ill Oct 2019, but has had symptoms and health reprocusions for years after, still lingering health issues. By spring 2020 offspring had to go to the ER twice with bad respiratory issues, couldn't breathe, had to be taken out of class to the ER, was diagnoses with asthma, although before that time had never in life had an asthma symptom ( there is asthma in the immediate family though, just had never expressed in that offspring). The COVID PCR tests were negative. The doctors had offspring use multiple daily steroidal inhaler of whatever usual type they do for a couple years, offspring is finally off that, still gets sick easier and tires much easier than mid 20's otherwise healthy, athletic, fit young people are expected to do.

So, I wonder that there may have been more than one illness going around. And we have it all mixed together so don't know.

Atmospheric River
vitranc: (Default)

[personal profile] vitranc 2023-06-28 07:16 pm (UTC)(link)
When the stars come right again...

Rogan vs RFK Jr

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 07:33 pm (UTC)(link)
Not sure if this has been posted in earlier threads, RFK Jr on Rogan https://rumble.com/v2ujfts-joe-rogan-interviews-robert-f.-kennedy-jr.-the-complete-unedited-interview-.html

It’s a bit long but he is dropping one truth-bomb after the other.
thinking_turtle: (Default)

Re: Convoys

[personal profile] thinking_turtle 2023-06-28 07:35 pm (UTC)(link)

Best explanation so far! Thanks for this!

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 08:02 pm (UTC)(link)
Why do you think interest might be slowing down?
athaia: (Default)

Re: flu mixed up with COVID

[personal profile] athaia 2023-06-28 08:41 pm (UTC)(link)
Flu can be very bad. The worst flu I ever had, in 2013, ripped off that veil that normally protects us from really grasping the reality of death. I mean, I knew on an intellectual level that everyone will die, me included, but during that flu, I grasped that reality on a gut level.

I also lost my sense of smell for two weeks, couldn't even smell peppermint tea. It became my daily ritual to stick my nose into that glass with dried peppermint leaves to see if it had returned. For a while I was worried I'd never get that sense back - I felt crippled, as if I had lost my sight or hearing.

Re: The Good and the Ungood

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 08:50 pm (UTC)(link)
Fascist Farm

For over 25 years I was on the Stanford campus nearly every week for music rehearsals until the week before my county lockdowns started because Stanford began locking down a week early. I watched the faculty, staff and students go evermore wacko-wokie over those years. How and why did all those ticket-puncher fools flock to apply to Stanford making it as "desirable" as Harvard?

I also have visited and worked at the Stanford hospital for nearly 60 years. Worked for 2 years as a high school volunteer in the emergency room and on the wards. I saw the underbelly of that institution and its medical school under the same roof and did not like what I saw. A creeping callousness and disregard for patient safety by 99.99% of the doctor staff who looked on patients as scary inconveniences most of the time. Worsening "us v them" dynamic over the years as California became so litigious on medical malpractice. "I got hurt so SOMEONE must pay!" Medicine is not an imperfect "art" anymore but a black & white simple recipe where all results must be perfect for everyone all the time! So what if my daily habits or diet is a cause of my illness! If I stick my hand in a farm machine and my arm is ripped off (while doing a stupid human trick) someone has to pay me!! The State finally limited malpractice awards to a pittance of under $200k for even gross negligence and then it was off to the races for malpractice with impunity.

I saw Stanford's nurses ever more overworked and underpaid. Lip service at best for the hippocratic oath. Nurses and doctors spending more time typing on computers for insurance reports than observing or talking to patents. Gross negligence constantly covered up. Death certificates issued fraudulently to cover up disasters easy to in the computer records of pill and potion dosages administered. I learned a few years ago from doctor-friends at the hospital never to go to the ER after 5 pm on weekdays or on any weekends or holidays since that is when as they said, "the maintenance crew" of low level residents were on duty. Go at those times to a nearby non-teaching hospital 15 minutes away even if in full cardiac arrest.

I once did legal work in front of the Stanford Medical School's human subject research oversight board and let's just say they all looked at human test subjects as idiots to be abused and underpaid in their own publish-or-perish and get-patent-royalties races but for one board member who was a non-doctor pastor required by federal law to be the token non-medical doctor on the panel. A binary "us v. them" in the extreme. Petty authoritarian dictators, ticket-puncher go-alongs, and resume builders from birth allowed - no, encouraged and enabled! - to run amok.

As the software tech boom started in the 1970's and the words "Silicon Valley" hit the mainstream press by the early 1980's, I saw ever more Gold Rush get-rich-quick students and faculty arrive as the Leland Stanford Junior Memorial University board of trustees got evermore pasty-faced software "bros" tech titan-tyrant-geeks who had usually no skills in math or biology whatsoever. Poor people skills having grown up glued to computer screens. Now many of them seriously think A.I. can replace all doctors and artists, too. Add in equally dumb trustee fools from the venture capital, real estate redevelopers, lawyers, investors, and banking sectors and here we are. The bankruptcy this year of Silicon Valley Bank and the Sam Bankman-Fried scandals - the latter is still under house arrest at his parents' Stanford Faculty Ivory Tower Happy Ghetto house one block away from the Stanford president's house built by former Stanford trustees' chair US President Herbert Hoover and his wife - are the tip of the iceberg on that board of rot which gleefully rubber stamped all that online bat flu censoring and has invested way too much of the university's endowment in risky securities.

Current trustee chair is Jerry Yang, a former Stanford student computer geek who founded Yahoo!, and sold it shortly after the People's Republic of China tried to impose tough censorship on it. He now does venture capital. Married to a Stanford MBA student he met while starting his company. She has served a long time on the San Francisco Ballet's board and they are big supporters of the San Francisco Asian Art Museum. No kids. He has served multiple terms as Stanford's board chair. Current term expires July 1, 2023.
https://boardoftrustees.stanford.edu/board-members/

Glad I am old enough to have been assigned to read in high school Orwell's 1984 and Animal Farm, and Huxley's Brave New World books along with extracts from Homer's Iliad and Odyssey, with lots of US history, too, studying many primary documents from George Washington's and Ike's farewell speeches to the US Constitution. Plus I took a lot of biology, math, physical science and history courses in college. Trained to drill down to primary sources, do math without calculator, and writing without a computer.

What I saw in 2021 from a 2020 Massachusetts candidate for US Senate who was deplatformed from Twitter right before balloting by a fascist gov/corp scheme which he uncovered with FOIA demands and lawsuits detailing Stanford's involvement in gov/corp online censoring means I will not participate in any Stanford activities until they clean house. But, I suspect they have to hit the rock bottom of bankruptcy for that to happen. Thanks to old Railroad and Junk Bond Dealer Leland “Robber Baron” Stanford, a former California governor and US senator, the university he built on his old trotting horse farm sits on a massive ever expanding real estate tax-free portfolio held in a special trust Old Leland pushed like a royal emperor through the state capitol before he died.

History teaches empires always rise and fall. Power always corrupts giving rise to reformers who become corrupt themselves. Some empires and their enablers fall faster than others.

W.R.

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 09:39 pm (UTC)(link)
Do you think there will be a resurgence?

Like, are people going to start waking up to what's going on? Why isn't this issue getting More popular instead of less?

I just don't understand why this isn't getting more talked about across the world when millions upon millions might be dying soon. Potentially billions.

Also, I want to thank you for recommending the book "When Prophecy Fails" many years back. It's been really enlightening to what's been going on.

Re: flu mixed up with COVID

[personal profile] weilong 2023-06-28 09:41 pm (UTC)(link)
The absurdly high cycle thresholds are only one of the problems with the PCR test for covid.

A more basic issue is that nobody can say whether the genetic material it is testing for is actually from a virus called sars-cov2 or not. Nobody has actually seen one of those viruses - they are purely hypothetical based on computer modeling (and yes, I know that is standard practice in virology, but that doesn't make it any better). And the sequence for the original test was extracted from something coughed up by a pneumonia patient in Wuhan, which likely contained biological material from a variety of unknown sources.

Another issue, of course, is that the tests have never been validated. Typically, you would want to compare the results of a test like this to some other test to see how reliable it is. In this case, the thing to do would be to compare PCR test results to clinical diagnoses in the same patients to see if they match up. Problem is, there is no clinical diagnosis for covid. The PCR test (and now its cousins the antibody and antigen tests) is the one and only diagnostic criteria for covid, which means there is no independently verifiable criteria by which it could be validated.

So the fact that your test is positive or negative doesn't mean anything - except perhaps meaning that your doctor is being lazy and relying on a lab test instead of actually looking at your symptoms and history.

Whether or not there actually ever was a new disease called covid is perhaps an open question. But all of the "covid cases" in the last three years, without a doubt, included grab-bag of various colds and flus and who-knows what else that were misdiagnosed on the basis of meaningless lab tests.

Re: flu mixed up with COVID

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 10:10 pm (UTC)(link)
This might be of interest re flu and testing, from Eugyppius's latest on what he calls viral interference (free public post with graphics at link that are referred to in text):
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/covid-suppressed-influenza-during

HEADLINE
Covid suppressed influenza during the first years of the pandemic. This isn't a testing artefact, it's not a win for lockdowns and it doesn't make SARS-2 a special flu-eating supervirus


TEXT
The flu was substantially suppressed across much of the world for the first two years of the Covid pandemic.

Many, many people disagree with me on this point, more than ever before. While I’m generally happy to let ideas I think are wrong persist alongside my own point of view, this is an exception, because it touches on the phenomenon of viral interference, which is very real and very important.

Properly understood, viral interference calls into question the entire rationale for non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow the transmission of viruses, and suggests that mass vaccination against old endemic pathogens like influenza is a very bad idea – even in a fantasy world where those vaccines are absolutely safe, and especially if they’re in any way effective.

I want to be as clear about this as I can, so I’ll pull a Pueyo and tell you what I’m about to say before I say it:

I’m going to explain how we know influenza infections were heavily suppressed, especially in the first year of the Covid pandemic, from data that has nothing – zero – to do with mass pandemic testing.

I’m going to explain why viral interference is such a conceptual problem, and how it becomes easier to understand if we drop one of the core assumptions of epidemiology.

Finally, I’m going to suggest that ordinary endemic viruses are an important defence against potentially dangerous novel pathogens.

This is not a post about mass PCR testing and its reliability. Even without mass testing data, we have good reason to conclude that Covid coincided with the widespread suppression of influenza.

That said, it’s very important to acknowledge that influenza testing changed drastically after March 2020. Equally important is the fact that influenza was never diagnosed via mass PCR testing, as Covid was, and this makes it easy to get lost in meaningless apples-to-oranges comparisons. Furthermore, there is no denying that the raw number of flu tests fell nearly to zero for the entire space of the pandemic period. Finally, there existed in most jurisdictions considerable financial incentives for diagnosing Covid infection in as many patients as possible, especially when those patients died.

These points raise grave questions about the integrity of our pandemic-era influenza data, but they don’t make a positive case in either direction. In what follows, and for the sake of argument, I’ll assume that ordinary diagnostic influenza testing ceased the world over on 1 March 2020. I’ll assume that the WHO FluNet statistics and CDC numbers are hopelessly confounded.

Evidence for influenza suppression after 2020
I’ve made my case for what happened to influenza during the pandemic multiple times, and I suspect that none of you want me to rehearse that in detail ever again. If you are, however, interested in links to the data and closer discussion, please see this piece on the Mysterious Disappearance of Influenza and this piece on the phenomenon of viral interference.

Here I’ll simply spell out the main points. There are four of them:

1) Various jurisdictions have small self-contained influenza surveillance programmes. Mass Covid PCR insanity did not affect these programmes. In Germany, participating sentinel clinics swab patients with respiratory symptoms and send these swabs to a testing centre. During the pandemic, they tested each of these swabs for each of seven viruses: rhinoviruses, ordinary human-infecting coronaviruses, influenza, RSV, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus and SARS-2. They’ve been doing this for a long time, yielding a wealth of data going back years about the seasonal patterns of the endemic viruses we live with. And this is the key point: After March 2020, influenza disappears entirely from German sentinel clinic swabs. Other viruses are heavily suppressed but not totally gone; only rhinoviruses seem unaffected.

2) The behaviour of influenza, at the population-level, is seasonally distinct. In most places, flu infections peak in February or March. Rhinoviruses, by contrast, are most active in the fall and the spring, and other respiratory viruses are most prevalent around the winter solstice in late December. If influenza were merely rebranded as Covid or overlooked by the pandemic-era testing regime, we’d expect fever gauges like Grippe Web1 to show the usual double-peak of virus respiratory systems, with one peak for the solstice viruses in December and another peak for flu after January. We don’t see that. For the crucial 2020/21 season, the post-January influenza peak is totally missing, and the solstice peak is anomalously low, in fact barely perceptible. This data is independent of all virus testing.


Acute respiratory illnesses (ARE) by year. In green, I’ve circled the expected yet totally missing February/March 2021 flu peak.

3) Very much in contrast to Covid and the other common respiratory viruses save RSV, influenza causes a small yet nontrivial number of hospitalisations and deaths in very young children. If flu were overlooked or rebranded as Covid during the pandemic, we’d expect to see the usual flu-related February/March hospitalisations and deaths in this age cohort, but we don’t. They’re totally missing. This is another data point totally independent of mass testing.

4) Viral interference is very real, and it has been observed for a long time. Some of the most convincing data emerges from studies of the 2009 Swine Flu. In this over-hyped “pandemic,” a new H1N1 flu strain spread across the globe, causing mild symptoms in most everyone. For humans, it was a nothinburger, but for the world of viruses, it was very disruptive, because viruses don’t have to be extra special or especially dangerous to upset the viral ecosystem. Ordinary human-infecting coronaviruses were heavily suppressed across the entire 2009/10 season. Almost nobody locked down for the Swine Flu, there was no mass PCR insanity, and yet multiple studies attest to a clear interference effect.

How viral interference probably works and why standard epidemiological assumptions are wrong
Viral interference does not – cannot – involve the direct competition of viruses within the same host. Only a small minority of the population (generally 2-10%) suffers symptomatic respiratory virus infection at any given time. Many influenza-shedding hosts will never encounter a single SARS-2-shedding host for the duration of their symptoms. And yet, viral interference happens.

What is going on?

Here it will help to consider all the other phenomena we’ve been treated to since 2020 that the virus understanders are equally powerless to explain:

How is it that waves of infection generally collapse of their own accord, well before burning through the entire population?

Why were non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially lockdowns, so powerless to do anything about Covid mortality?

And, above all, why were the virus models so invariably, irretrievably wrong all the time?

We are labouring under a serious error, and that error is to be sought somewhere in the SIR model of virus transmission. In the deceptively logical, simple world of SIR (which underpins not merely virus computer modelling but much epidemiological thought) immunologically naive people are held to be Susceptible until they encounter the virus. They are then Infected, after which they either die or Recover and are immune.

This model is particularly attractive to the vaccinators of the world, who believe that they can snatch people out of the Susceptible pool by jabbing them, and drop them into the Recovered/Vaccinated column, thereby skipping the dreaded Infected part.

Well, dear readers, we have endured an unprecedented exercise in mass vaccination. It had many effects on virus transmission, but none of it looked like SIR told us it would. Many theories are possible, but anyone who seriously attempts to understand how viruses actually behave must sooner or later throw SIR into the trash.

R. Edgar Hope Simpson, in trying to account for the many oddities of influenza transmission, effectively located the error of SIR in its overly simplistic conception of what it means to be Infected and Recovered.

As for Covid, SIR looks to be entirely too simplistic in its conception of the Susceptible. An ordinary population not subject to a multi-year Chinese hygiene regime has substantial resistance to viral infection in general. Scroll up and look at the German fever-gauge data once more. Note how, across the entire German population, symptomatic infections seem to have serious trouble breaching the 10% threshold. Whenever they scrape it, a collapse is imminent.

Here’s how I read that: Innate immune defences are powerful, and they make a solid majority of everybody invulnerable to respiratory virus infection at any given time. Viruses don’t have free run of the entire uninfected population; only a small minority of respiratory tracts are open to them. That Susceptible minority waxes and wanes with the seasons. In the summer, it’s very small indeed, and many viruses drop to nearly undetectable levels. In the winter, the number of Susceptible increases substantially.

We have a good explanation of viral interference, if we posit that prior infection with one respiratory virus knocks the recovered person out of the Susceptible column for many other viruses. Interferon is one likely mechanism here, but there are probably others. If you’re in the minority 5% susceptible and you get influenza, you’re most likely invulnerable to Covid for a while afterwards, and vice versa.

Once we revise our conception of who is susceptible, a lot of things come into focus. We wasted much effort locking down and vaccinating people who were invulnerable to infection in any case. This was entirely useless if not actively harmful, because Covid vaccination, it turns out, does not necessarily take you out of the susceptible column. On the contrary, it has bizarre and unexpected effects on virus susceptibility, often increasing it both in the near- and longer-term. Infection waves collapse well before they burn through the whole population because only a minority of people are susceptible at any given time. Models are wrong because they drastically overestimate susceptibility.

SIR, on closer consideration, is not an empirical attempt to understand virus transmission at all. Instead, it’s a heavily politicised paradigm, useful for exaggerating the threat of respiratory pathogens and justifying technocratic public health interventions like mass vaccination. It persists not because it’s right, but because it’s useful.

Ordinary endemic viruses are a defence against novel pathogens and lockdowns are very bad
The problem isn’t that lockdowns do nothing. It’s that they’re just effective enough to be dangerous. Endemic viruses that have been around forever face the standard constraints of seasonality and the drastic limitations our innate immune systems place on susceptibility, but they’re also boxed in by adaptive immunity. They face antibodies everywhere because they’ve been infecting billions of people since childhood. A newer pathogen, like SARS-2, faces fewer adaptive immune constraints.


All-cause mortality in England. The red line indicates the beginning of serious pandemic restrictions.
When you lock down and put hand sanitiser on every corner, it’s the old endemic viruses that take the hit first. In preventing these infections, you effectively reserve precious susceptible respiratory tracts for the somewhat faster novel virus. We know that SARS-2 was circulating widely as early as Fall 2019, and yet it only coincided with serious mortality as influenza infections collapsed in the course of February and March.


All-cause mortality in Italy. Red line: advent of the first serious lockdowns in the hardest-hit northern regions.
The chronology suggests that influenza, already at the end of its season, was being out-competed in many places by Covid as early as February. Lockdowns are far from the only factor in play here, but everywhere the story is the same: Collapsing influenza is a precondition for pandemic mortality.


All-cause mortality in Spain. Red line: advent of the first serious pandemic restrictions.
Influenza is far from the only virus with which SARS-2 competes. It’s almost surely no accident that SARS-2 was at its deadliest in heavily restricted care home environments. These were spaces in which a draconian hygiene interventions spared SARS-2 all competition. Compare the case of the Diamond Princess, where Covid also had access to a lot of old people but could rack up very few deaths, no doubt because of endemic virus competition.

Mass vaccination initiatives to reduce the prevalence of endemic respiratory viruses, including vastly milder Omicron-era Covid, are a very bad idea for the same reason that lockdowns are. Even if they’re totally safe, the risk is that they’ll end up reserving hosts for other, newer pathogens and the unknown risks that these pose.

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 11:34 pm (UTC)(link)
I hope that it continues to slowly taper off. These will tapper off entirely unless something happens, and I think Lord Salisbury put it best: "Whatever happens will be for the worse, and therefore it is in our interest that as little should happen as possible."

Re: flu mixed up with COVID

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 11:50 pm (UTC)(link)
A month or two ago, I posted a link here to a very long discussion between Prof. David Collum and a guy named John Cullen. It was mentally exhausting, with lots of citations of official stats to show that Covid was a cover for the accidental release of re-sequenced Spanish Flu. (But before dismissing that idea as completely insane, you should know that they did resurrect that strain of influenza from an exhumed corpse buried in permafrost since 1919 or so. That's been a published fact for over a decade, if memory serves me.)

Today, Eugyppius posted a new article about the phenomenon of "viral interference." He believes that influenza really did disappear for two years. I can't read his whole article, because my substack budget is maxed out, and he's behind a paywall. If nobody is testing for the 1917 strain, though (and of course no one was) and if the early CT counts of 40+ could find covid on a tennis shoe how could you ever really tell if it was flu or covid?

I don't have any idea. I've also seen recent papers claiming that the high mortality during the Spanish Flu pandemic was largely iatrogenic -- super high doses of a relatively new "miracle drug" (aspirin) are alleged to have killed thousands.

About some things, I feel certain: public health authorities mostly lied through their teeth and did their best to ban repurposed drugs. But, all the lies make it impossible to figure out what actually was circulating. And that, it seems, was part of their desired goal.

*Ochre Harebrained Curmudgeon*

(Anonymous) 2023-06-28 11:54 pm (UTC)(link)
This is a bit of a tangent as I have no input about magic, but I do remember a strong social media push against "anti vaxxers" a few years before covid. I definitely remember it becoming very strong and sort of the scapegoat of people to mock, people too stupid to give their kids vaccines, look at the data, etc. Not that any data was ever actually given, mind you, it was more lecture-y, mocking memes and zingers, that sort of thing. Now I've been "vaccine hesitant" before that was a term, now not hesitant at all, it's just a clear NO for me. I was injured by a vaccine as a kid, had a really weird / scary reaction, my mom said she was furious when the doctors just talked about how "interesting" it was. Anyway. I'm sort of immune to mockery of "anti vaxxers" because I know it's more complicated than the bullet points they'll talk about. And they'll never, never talk about the actual facts rather than just blowing up at people emotionally about it. I've just let it wash over myself. My mom and I were both of this mindset, I feel, even though there were a lot of areas politically and otherwise where we didn't align. Just a deep skepticism and unwillingness to "go there" with people who will just want to mock you, etc. This attitude was all over social media but I wouldn't say it intruded much in real life.

My brother, otoh, definitely fell into a mild "well anti vaxxers are kinda dumb" in real life, like he believed "the science" about all of this. He's the only one in my family who got the covid shot, and he regretted it afterwards as more came out about how it was made, and a lot of other stuff. We have not talked about this a lot. I have to say we don't tend to align politically, and he's far more right wing than I am. I am left, sometimes middle, he's right, sometimes middle. Anyway. I was fine with masks and some of the pandemic measures (though in retrospect it seems many weren't as well planned and effective as they claimed), but I was absolutely immune to anything vaxx-pushing and I think the phrase "vaccine hesitant" was such a mind fuck to push onto people who were not hesitant - they were saying NO.

I saw something online about how technology keeps trying to remove "no" from us. We don't want to sign up for this or that - there's no "no" it's just Yes or Maybe Later. In many areas, this just being one. That's how it felt with the vaxx shit. They wouldn't believe that No Means No. My body, my choice - I don't want that in me.

In my area, there were frankly rather offensive billboards with lots of mexican-american families, bland statements about "hesitancy" and "getting the facts" and stuff about protecting your loved ones, helping them "understand" why they needed it. I don't know if the latino community was particularly "hesitant" here or if that was just their way of trying to make people look down on the "hesitant" or what. It just felt like really dumb propaganda nobody would believe. The subtext was pretty clearly "dumb minorities need educated." I'm sorry, but it was really gross.

It almost seems to me like everyone had their mind made up about vaccines before it all happened. Like completely made up already! It's so weird to me. I very clearly remember when we were all focused on lockdowns and people were still saying we just needed a bit longer to flatten the curve - all these posts about how great it would be, how they hoped for a vaccine soon, so that the lockdowns could all end. What a wonderful thing it would be, when this savior of a vaccine would arrive and free us all!

I just remember thinking it was weird everyone was so obsessed with vaccines before they were even on the horizon, instead of continuing to talk about how to prevent or cure this problem.

Borders should have been shut far sooner than they were. Not that I think that would have stopped it. But it might have slowed the spread more than any of the draconian measures. The flights around the world were really not cracked down on as any sane measure of safety could have recommended by a working government. I don't remember if any country did actually bother trying to close their borders for international flights to slow the spread, but ours sure fucked that one up for far too long.

Then the things like suppressing information about how to best fight off the disease, or keep yourself from getting it, even really basic things like vitamin D levels just weren't disseminated to the public and were sometimes even suppressed, much less more "controversial" treatments (such as not putting people on respirators).

I was super disappointed in the left wing crowd about this, but I saw a lot of bad actors in the right wing arena, too. Nobody in politics really gets a pass from me on this whole messy event.

I am now at the point where hearing about sudden deaths and shocking diagnoses and "weird" health events leads me to the sort of silence I've long held about the whole "anti vaxx" issue. Like I'm not going to bring it up, I'm not going to argue, I'm not going to challenge your worldview. Believe what you want. But I'm not shocked when people who've been vaxxed are dealing with more of this than most.

People who didn't / don't take this sickness seriously are playing with fire, IMO. It definitely hurt me and people I love. It left a lot of people weakened and with complicated. But none of them as bad as the vaxx, and no matter how bad this sickness has been to so many, I don't think the actions for pushing the vax on people was justified. And I think it would have been morally wrong even if it did what they said. If it was world saving and magical, and cured all the world's ills, it would still be wrong to use coercion to make people take it.

There is blood on many hands because of this, and i shudder to think how it will play out as the damage continues to unfold. I feel this is the thing now that we as a society can't talk about. The big unspoken THING. Who's next? Who got it? What will happen to us all, if they can do all of this to us, is there any hope at all? I think a lot of people can't even think this in their own minds. It's just there, in the subconscious, driving them slowly mad. I hate that for them. I don't wish harm on the antivaxxers who wished harm on me. I think they were duped and fell for it. There but for the grace of god, you know?

Sometimes a real reckoning never comes. It just gets buried and poisons a society. I think there's a lot of that in America. I think there might be more to come. Would love to be wrong about that! Would love to see some actual justice and a clearing of this miasma of evil we all live in.

(Anonymous) 2023-06-29 12:18 am (UTC)(link)
Count me in, please! 😊🍕😊

Re: The Good and the Ungood

(Anonymous) 2023-06-29 01:38 am (UTC)(link)
>"I got hurt so SOMEONE must pay!"

It occurs to me that "I got hurt so someone must pay my medical bills, and if it's me that'll bankrupt me" might be more apropos.

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