I'm still trying to work my brain around how all these numbers fit with a "pull-forward" effect in places that had high mortality from the virus itself-- like what you see in Bulgaria, which has a low vax rate, currently quite low mortality compared to the rest of Europe, but... they had a really terrible run with the virus, initially. Is it possible that within the borders of Bulgaria, the vax is irrelevant, because what we're seeing in the numbers is just that the virus killed off the weak, and everybody left is now more robust than average?

I keep trying to see where this pattern fits, or doesn't fit, with other countries and their vax vs. initial virus death rates, and can't make out any consistent patterns. Frustrating. So annoying when multivariate puzzles don't have simple and obvious answers!