Today Dutch CBS released the mortality data for the last two weeks of 2022. It shows that excess mortality peaked in week 51 (Dec 19 - Dec 25) at 28.6% and then declined in week 52 to 17.0%. Unless many people who died after Christmas haven't been administrated yet, this means that week 51 saw the peak of the current wave of excess mortality and that we now are on the downward slope of that wave.

This development in in sync with the sewage data that show the peak of the current wave on December 23th, and since then a decline.

Covid 19 is only a very small part of the excess mortality, but the virus prevalence is (again!!) seen to be a very good indicator of the excess mortality. Earlier I noted this pattern in the Delta wave of October/November 2021 and in the Omicron waves since last September, but there has been no scientific proof of the mechanism behind it. Rintrah recently made waves recently speculating it is due to tolerance.

I'll keep an eye on the data to see if there will be corrections in the mortality data and if the sewage data indeed keep going down after Dec 23th (data available only till the 26th), but tentatively it looks like this unexplained synchronicity in de data continues.

Links:
Sewage data https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/rioolwater
Mortality data in the excell file downloadable here https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/maatwerk/2023/01/overledenen-per-week-provincie-en-gemeente-week-52-2022
Expected mortality here https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2022/49/oversterfte-in-november-lager-dan-in-oktober (implied in graph)