I'm cautiously optimistic that we can avoid the civil war outcome.
1. A lot of people are being browbeat into continued allegiance to a party but are ready to break ranks if it clear that an alternative will win. I watched 35% support for an independent centrist governor candidate in Oregon get whittled down to 10% by a determined fear campaign powered by out-of-state party money casting her as a spoiler for the other, evil side. If that support had started at 50% I don't think those tactics would have worked, so perhaps we don't have far to go...
2. In our modern, climate-controlled, safety-focused existence, I don't think there is much appetite for real war. Lawlessness, crime, warbands, the beginnings of insurgency perhaps, but not Gettysburg or Antietam.
3. The two "tribes" are not as geographically separated as the media would have us believe. A few cities are 80-20 D-R, and the reddest rural areas are around 80-20 R-D, but all states and most counties have at least 30% identification with the minority tribe. Recent migration trends based on political affiliation are worrying in this regard, but I don't think it will be enough to really change the percentages. Furthermore there will probably soon be an exodus from blue cities due to the collapse of tech/virtual employment which will lead to more mixing. It's easy to hate the neighboring town but hard to actually wage war on them, and the continued intermixing provides some buffer to dehumanizing/othering tendencies.
breaking the binary
1. A lot of people are being browbeat into continued allegiance to a party but are ready to break ranks if it clear that an alternative will win. I watched 35% support for an independent centrist governor candidate in Oregon get whittled down to 10% by a determined fear campaign powered by out-of-state party money casting her as a spoiler for the other, evil side. If that support had started at 50% I don't think those tactics would have worked, so perhaps we don't have far to go...
2. In our modern, climate-controlled, safety-focused existence, I don't think there is much appetite for real war. Lawlessness, crime, warbands, the beginnings of insurgency perhaps, but not Gettysburg or Antietam.
3. The two "tribes" are not as geographically separated as the media would have us believe. A few cities are 80-20 D-R, and the reddest rural areas are around 80-20 R-D, but all states and most counties have at least 30% identification with the minority tribe. Recent migration trends based on political affiliation are worrying in this regard, but I don't think it will be enough to really change the percentages. Furthermore there will probably soon be an exodus from blue cities due to the collapse of tech/virtual employment which will lead to more mixing. It's easy to hate the neighboring town but hard to actually wage war on them, and the continued intermixing provides some buffer to dehumanizing/othering tendencies.