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John Michael Greer ([personal profile] ecosophia) wrote2022-08-30 04:59 pm

Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 56

if onlyAs we move further into the second year of these open posts, it's pretty clear that the official narrative is cracking as the toll of deaths and injuries from the Covid vaccines rises steadily and the vaccines themselves demonstrate their total uselesness at preventing Covid infection or transmission. It's still important to keep watch over the mis-, mal- and nonfeasance of our self-proclaimed health gruppenfuehrers, and the disastrous results of the Covid mania, but I think it's also time to begin thinking about what might be possible as the existing medical industry reels under the impact of its own self-inflicted injuries. 

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before: 

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here. 
 
3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue. 

4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules. 

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.    

Re: 1 in 246?

(Anonymous) 2022-09-03 05:12 pm (UTC)(link)
1 in 246 dying within 60 days is not as gruesome a number as it appears. The number of people who would have died anyway in that time period has to be subtracted to determine how many excess deaths there were. Figuring that out to any specificity is challenging in this new era of fudged medical statistics, but a back of the envelope calculation is easy enough.

Global life expectancy was at 72 years going into the Coronapocalypse. It hasn't been updated since, but shredding the global economy through lockdowns has caused it to drop by some amount, so let's go with 70 years. 1/70 = 1.43% chance of death per person per year. That 1.43%/6 = 0.24% chance of death per person per 60 days. Subtracting that 0.24% from the 0.41% chance of the 1 in 246 number, yields a very rough excess death rate of 0.17%, or 1 in 588.

That's still a much worse risk of death from vaccination than any other vaccines allowed on the market, but not quite so jaw-dropping as the ratio they're shaking menacingly in front of their readers' eyes. Comparing that excess death rate with its counterpart from 5 months out, 10 months out, etc. would certainly be more useful than waving a scary number around out of context. However, we're still in the early stages of these improperly disclosed drug trials, so we don't yet have the long-term data necessary to get a good picture of how dangerous they will eventually turn out to be.

We’ve all been speculating about how dire the trial results will be for over a year now. A few months ago, most posters were confidently predicting that the mortality rate would remain modest, based on extrapolating from the data available at the time. Now, many posters are confidently predicting a much more frightening mortality rate, based on extrapolating from the data available today. In a few more months’ time, we will likely be confidently predicting a yet another mortality rate, based on our linear extrapolations. Looking for signal amidst the swirling chaos is a noble endeavor, but attributing confidence to our panicked mid-stream calculations is a fool’s folly.

We will only begin to get a really good picture when the trials end in 10+ years out. Uncertainty and predictability dance together in the tenuous balance we call life, endlessly teetering towards imbalance one way or the other. I have to admit, my life stopped being so dreadfully predictable just a few years back, and I’m still reveling in that new uncertain balance.

— Christophe
methylethyl: (Default)

Re: 1 in 246?

[personal profile] methylethyl 2022-09-03 08:44 pm (UTC)(link)
It'll be interesting to find out! A shame the only way to know for sure is... to wait.

Re: 1 in 246?

[personal profile] fredsmith11 2022-09-05 09:09 am (UTC)(link)
No need to wait for the results, they're clear already.

In heavily vaxxed countries death rates are now typically 10-15% above the 5 year baseline. There are often spurts higher occurring after booster roll outs. I'm no stats whiz, but I've read the 10-15% rise is a 6 sigma deviation. In other words it's impossible through chance.

There are videos on rumble showing the temporal connection between death rates and jab rollouts. The graphs of deaths shoot upwards just after mass vax campaigns.

Add in the myriad reports from whistleblower doctors, nurses, oncologists, embalmers etc.

The only question left is HOW BAD is it going to get?