ecosophia: (Default)
John Michael Greer ([personal profile] ecosophia) wrote2022-08-30 04:59 pm

Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 56

if onlyAs we move further into the second year of these open posts, it's pretty clear that the official narrative is cracking as the toll of deaths and injuries from the Covid vaccines rises steadily and the vaccines themselves demonstrate their total uselesness at preventing Covid infection or transmission. It's still important to keep watch over the mis-, mal- and nonfeasance of our self-proclaimed health gruppenfuehrers, and the disastrous results of the Covid mania, but I think it's also time to begin thinking about what might be possible as the existing medical industry reels under the impact of its own self-inflicted injuries. 

So it's time for another open post. The rules are the same as before: 

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here. 
 
3. If you plan on using rent-a-troll derailing or disruption tactics, please go away. I'm quite familiar with the standard tactics used by troll farms to disrupt online forums, and am ready, willing, and able -- and in fact quite eager -- to ban people permanently for engaging in them here. Oh, and I also lurk on other Covid-19 vaccine skeptic blogs, so I'm likely to notice when the same posts are showing up on more than one venue. 

4. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules. 

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.    

A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

[personal profile] team10tim 2022-08-30 11:59 pm (UTC)(link)
I have a theory about how all this happened. Let me know what you think.

The medical research industry has become systematically corrupt. Fraud is rampant and the conflicts of interest are so common that no one bats an eye at them anymore. We've all heard about the replication crisis and the long list of legal penalties to Pfizer for bribes, fraudulent marketing, suppressing adverse data, etc.

But.. here is the theory.. everyone in the industry behaves as if they are the only ones cheating. They are all bending the rules, gaming the system, and p-hacking the data, but they make decisions as if they were the only ones doing it and all of the other players are honest and acting in good faith. An actor here is anyone on the same team that is in on the scam. It can be a single person or a research team or the whole leadership at the department of health depending on what the scam is. Yes, this requires doublethink. No, I don't think that is much of suprise these days.

So, from the top, Obama bans gain of function research in the USA. Fauci, Peter Daszak, and few others funnel money through the EcoHealth Alliance to the Wuhan Institute of Virology to do the research overseas. Someone at Wuhan screws up and lets covid loose.

The employee hides it from the lab as long as possible. The lab hides it from Wuhan as long as possible. China hides it from the world as long as possible. China and the USA hide their collaboration as long as possible.

The big pharma companies see a great opportunity to to get their new mRNA gene therapies into production with minimal oversight. Their research teams kludge something together that might work and present it as the best available option, without knowing that the spike that they are using was basically weaponized in Wuhan. Every single safety or efficacy test is done by a team that knows their job is to produce the results that are hoped for, and not to find problems. Every step of the way each actor assumes that the data they were given is sound, and adds a little bit of their own polish and embellishment before sending it up the ladder.

The FDA takes the results at face value and does a cursory check to make sure that no flashing red warning lights have slipped through and might get them in trouble later. It gets rubber stamped and shipped out.

The politicians see the fantastic numbers and proclaim that the safe and effective vaccine is the Holy grail of vaccines and it will be the most closely monitored medical product in history.

From here on out, each and every actor knows that if there is some problem with the vax it will get them in trouble over previous scams and they all fudge new data to prevent anything from coming out that might raise alarms. This includes the media that were just passing off the government press releases as if they were real news.

Which brings us to the present moment where a huge amount of evidence is directly contradicting the establishment narrative. I'm expecting that the last month of CYA and blame shifting will go into overdrive in the next 3-6 months as it turns out that basically everyone was complicit in fabricating something.

Thoughts?

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 12:44 am (UTC)(link)
What actions and data have you seen that support this thesis and indicate to you that it’s the correct one?

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

[personal profile] team10tim 2022-08-31 03:25 am (UTC)(link)
I'm thinking of Pfizer and the CDC.

If Pfizer has a comprehensive data set from the trials and they know where all the bodies are buried, so to speak, then they would have known about the decline in efficacy before the 1st EUA. They might have still pushed it hoping for revenue from boosters. But, if they knew about the increase in all cause mortality then they would have to know what a dangerous position they were putting themselves in. If they knew that their vax was ineffective and extremely dangerous before EAU, and much more so for 6 months to 5 years EUA, then they would know they were putting themselves in the metaphorical crosshairs for financial and legal ruin. Possibly even literal crosshairs.

The CDC didn't fund Wuhan, develope or approve the vaccines, or block early treatments. They did (still are) suppressing the data that we need on a number of fronts. They promised to run the PPR tests on the VAERS data and never did. I can understand if they were trying to spin things in a positive light to avoid vaccine hesitancy in the beginning, but as more data comes out the position becomes untenable to hold in good faith. Especially if you assume that they knew the real numbers that died from covid vs with covid.

If the CDC has good data across the board then their actions so far become very difficult to explain without some very novel theories like the demon hypothesis, James Bond supervillains, or the collective unconscious going insane.
Edited (Fixed typos) 2022-08-31 04:45 (UTC)

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

[personal profile] dendroica 2022-08-31 03:46 pm (UTC)(link)
I tend to see it in terms of dominant beliefs, mythologies, archetypes, etc.

Simon Sheridan unpacked this quite well in his "Plague Story" series:
https://www.bookdepository.com/Plague-Story-Other-Essays-Simon-Sheridan/9780648948612

Think of it this way: if your name is the Centers for Disease Control, you have a particular role to play in a pandemic story that has already been constructed in the collective consciousness and gamed out in literature and movies. You will oversee the approval and distribution of the miracle vaccine that will turn the tide. And given that this story feels effectively preordained, it is very difficult to stray from it (e.g. by putting the kibosh on vaccination). To do so would feel like a deep betrayal from within the worldview of the religion of Progress.

So...I actually don't think it is fraud, demons, gods, or supervillains so much as a hopeful, willful ignorance borne of unquestioned belief. (That's not to say there isn't plenty of fraud happening, and some demons getting involved as well...) The folks at the CDC saw evidence suggesting efficacy (high antibody titers, initial reported trial results) and limited evidence of safety (from poorly-conducted studies that they assumed were legit) and rounded that up to the miracle product that would fill a gaping vaccine-shaped hole in the archetypal story playing out.

I say this because I have participated in a parallel phenomenon, in the world of alternative energy research. It is assumed (or at least it still was ten years ago) that we will inevitably develop cheap and abundant energy sources to replace fossil fuels. So researchers focus on metrics that are improving (solar panel efficiency, battery energy density, wind turbine power output) and translate that directly to "this will save the world" while filling all of the other critical uncertainties (cost, lifespan, scalability, resource requirements) with warm and fuzzy hopes and beliefs. We're solving the most important problems, the engineers will take care of the details.

In the energy world, those ignored details usually result in failed startups, investment money poured down the drain, and a world that still runs on coal and oil. In the public health world, those ignored details can result in millions of deaths.

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 06:51 pm (UTC)(link)
"the engineers will take care of the details." describes the way many, if not most, massive and urgent projects are prosecuted these days. We called it Design/Build in my neck of the woods. Not too risky for systems of smaller, simpler, common scale but get into acres under roof and inaccurate assumptions early on grow in lockstep with scale and complexity. The F35 is as good a case in point as any. It's referred to as The Penguin I hear.
Gawain

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 11:29 pm (UTC)(link)
It’s also a Fox watching the hen house kind of thing and requires competent oversight.

I.E. the engineers known the budget and mysteriously the contractors change orders are for just over the forecasted costs…

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 07:13 pm (UTC)(link)
"We're solving the most important problems, the engineers will take care of the details."

All too often, leaving the poor engineers stuck in situations like this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 09:07 pm (UTC)(link)
This is, perhaps, one of the greatest videos of all time.
p_coyle: (Default)

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

[personal profile] p_coyle 2022-09-02 06:21 am (UTC)(link)
seconded.

i was laughing out loud at this one on several occasions. it's one of the most funny things i've seen in a long while. i'm seriously considering sharing it with the management at my job.

if they don't get it, i will share it with the peeps that actually get the jobs done.

i just wish we got to see the whiteboard with all the lines drawn on it.

thanks anon for the link.

this one is just about as hilarious:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mokllJ_Sz_g
Edited (had to add a link) 2022-09-02 06:38 (UTC)

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 12:49 am (UTC)(link)
"But.. here is the theory.. everyone in the industry behaves as if they are the only ones cheating. They are all bending the rules, gaming the system, and p-hacking the data, but they make decisions as if they were the only ones doing it and all of the other players are honest and acting in good faith. An actor here is anyone on the same team that is in on the scam. It can be a single person or a research team or the whole leadership at the department of health depending on what the scam is. Yes, this requires doublethink. No, I don't think that is much of surprise these days."

This seems likely to me. It's funny, because in the scientific world, everyone knows their discipline is corrupt; but few people seem to be able to grasp it is a systematic problem. My guess is that the implications of accepting it would just be too great for people who still believe in Progress to be able to process it.

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

[personal profile] team10tim 2022-08-31 04:39 am (UTC)(link)
That's an amusing reversal from the senator corruption problem, where politicians are all corrupt except for my senator.

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 11:34 pm (UTC)(link)
Yours too? From what I understand mine is courageously fighting corruption! I’m glad he’s not alone.

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 04:32 am (UTC)(link)
"...everyone in the industry behaves as if they are the only ones cheating. They are all bending the rules, gaming the system, and p-hacking the data, but they make decisions as if they were the only ones doing it and all of the other players are honest and acting in good faith.... Yes, this requires doublethink. No, I don't think that is much of surprise these days."

I think you're on to something.

So FYI, I went to graduate school and worked on several academic studies, for well-respected academics and well-respected research centers. I quit before my career really got started, because I found research to be a giant sham; most studies were poorly-designed or otherwise deeply flawed, data was cherry-picked to give desired results, work was compromised by unreasonable deadlines and funder expectations, data was tortured to fit the theoretical flavor-of-the-month, etc. If my experience is in any way indicative of the larger research world, research is a wasteland.

But I wouldn't say that most people think they're "cheating" exactly. Just, you know...cutting a corner here, cutting a corner there (so busy! so little time!), looking (or not) at what the funder of this research wants them to look (or not), ignoring data and patterns that don't fit the desired results, etc. Gotta play the game, gotta get the work done on deadline, gotta keep the money flowing... And yes, when EVERYONE is doing this, it messes up - well, everything. Layers on top of layers of bad data compound each other.

I think what I'm saying, is that the whole structure of how research is funded and incentivized is flawed, and causes a lot of bad research, and then the bad research compounds itself - but the root of the problem isn't that everyone is deliberately cheating, exactly. In my experience, it's more like everyone is playing the same corrupted game and producing compromised products, and not thinking about what that leads to in the aggregate.

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 03:34 pm (UTC)(link)
But you think that they don't communicate with each other at conferences, or as they move between labs? Over a beer they don't say "boy, listen to this!"? I don't disagree with your general outline, but what I do question is the idea that there isn't a level of common knowledge. The industries I've been in all have had a base level awareness of the hypocrisies that riddle the system. Everyone knows, but they gotta get paid. It doesn't change much in the end; the situation is the same, but that conscious awareness makes all the difference in matters of morality.

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

[personal profile] team10tim 2022-08-31 03:58 pm (UTC)(link)
Yes, exactly

For our purposes I don't think it matters much if we call it cheating or bending the rules or cutting corners. The overall effect is that the big picture is overly optimistic because all of the inputs have been aggregated by people with rose tinted glasses.

A question for you. In your experience, how do they handle coming clean when an obvious problem emerges? What happens when the compounded corner cutting results in a grade A SNAFU?

I imagine that it various by circumstances, burying this research, quietly abandoning that project, but what do the decision makers do when it is 1 highly visible and 2 very bad?

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-09-01 04:12 am (UTC)(link)
I haven’t experienced anything like what’s currently at stake of course, but i have seen something along these lines once or twice before when things get tricky: make one person not quite at the top but close enough to be palatable resign as a scapegoat, restructure the underlings to make them all reapply for their own jobs so they’re too distracted to become a whistleblower and in the end they’re just “grateful” they don’t lose their salaries/possibility for tenure maybe someday, and squeeze new grad students for fresh ideas to get another round of grant money to start the next project.

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

[personal profile] dendroica 2022-08-31 04:16 pm (UTC)(link)
Having had this experience in graduate school as well (see my longer comment in this same thread), I think this is correct but that it is caused by beliefs and motives obstructing objectivity - the idea that a certain result is to be expected or rewarded, or even that it is to some extent preordained (because technology will always advance to better and greater things).

In fields where money and ideas of salvation are less prevalent, research seems to have avoided this corruption. I think my friend who studies the evolution and ecology of mycorrhizal fungi of limited commercial application does good work...

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 11:35 pm (UTC)(link)
Are you sure he isn’t just a shill for big shroom?! 😉
tritumi: (Default)

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

[personal profile] tritumi 2022-08-31 10:59 pm (UTC)(link)
In the terms of that well-known social analyst and philosopher, Dirty Harry, the punks are feeling lucky.

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 04:25 pm (UTC)(link)
I had the same theory. It fits with history and human nature.

BTW I chose not to go to grad school for (among other reasons) the same one as the other commenter: "most studies were poorly-designed or otherwise deeply flawed, data was cherry-picked to give desired results, work was compromised by unreasonable deadlines and funder expectations, data was tortured to fit the theoretical flavor-of-the-month, etc.... the root of the problem isn't that everyone is deliberately cheating, exactly. In my experience, it's more like everyone is playing the same corrupted game and producing compromised products, and not thinking about what that leads to in the aggregate."

Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars

(Anonymous) 2022-08-31 06:14 pm (UTC)(link)
I've been thinking along the same lines of this theory by team10tim except for one twist, which may account for how fast and furious this whole rollout has been - I suspect the pharma companies knew (to some extent) how badly the WIV and government agencies screwed up with this lab leak, and used that as leverage to get these ridiculous contracts signed with all these "wealthy" nations. I also suspect they knew it had been in circulation for several months prior to the declaration of a "pandemic" and thus thought that utilizing the spike protein wouldn't amount to anything overtly dangerous. Though it's tough to explain away the logic of this new bivalent approach ... what is the logic behind requiring the original formula before getting the bivalent? That's going off topic so I digress.

But overall, I agree we are seeing a confluence of corrupt behaviors that are starting to snowball out of control. As a silver lining to all this, perhaps it is an ideal opportunity to identify all the corrupt players in this saga? it's like a giant web of a corruption at this point, and unless the internet breaks, everything is on record.

~ O.E.A.