Think of it this way: if your name is the Centers for Disease Control, you have a particular role to play in a pandemic story that has already been constructed in the collective consciousness and gamed out in literature and movies. You will oversee the approval and distribution of the miracle vaccine that will turn the tide. And given that this story feels effectively preordained, it is very difficult to stray from it (e.g. by putting the kibosh on vaccination). To do so would feel like a deep betrayal from within the worldview of the religion of Progress.
So...I actually don't think it is fraud, demons, gods, or supervillains so much as a hopeful, willful ignorance borne of unquestioned belief. (That's not to say there isn't plenty of fraud happening, and some demons getting involved as well...) The folks at the CDC saw evidence suggesting efficacy (high antibody titers, initial reported trial results) and limited evidence of safety (from poorly-conducted studies that they assumed were legit) and rounded that up to the miracle product that would fill a gaping vaccine-shaped hole in the archetypal story playing out.
I say this because I have participated in a parallel phenomenon, in the world of alternative energy research. It is assumed (or at least it still was ten years ago) that we will inevitably develop cheap and abundant energy sources to replace fossil fuels. So researchers focus on metrics that are improving (solar panel efficiency, battery energy density, wind turbine power output) and translate that directly to "this will save the world" while filling all of the other critical uncertainties (cost, lifespan, scalability, resource requirements) with warm and fuzzy hopes and beliefs. We're solving the most important problems, the engineers will take care of the details.
In the energy world, those ignored details usually result in failed startups, investment money poured down the drain, and a world that still runs on coal and oil. In the public health world, those ignored details can result in millions of deaths.
Re: A presumption of honesty in a room full of liars
Simon Sheridan unpacked this quite well in his "Plague Story" series:
https://www.bookdepository.com/Plague-Story-Other-Essays-Simon-Sheridan/9780648948612
Think of it this way: if your name is the Centers for Disease Control, you have a particular role to play in a pandemic story that has already been constructed in the collective consciousness and gamed out in literature and movies. You will oversee the approval and distribution of the miracle vaccine that will turn the tide. And given that this story feels effectively preordained, it is very difficult to stray from it (e.g. by putting the kibosh on vaccination). To do so would feel like a deep betrayal from within the worldview of the religion of Progress.
So...I actually don't think it is fraud, demons, gods, or supervillains so much as a hopeful, willful ignorance borne of unquestioned belief. (That's not to say there isn't plenty of fraud happening, and some demons getting involved as well...) The folks at the CDC saw evidence suggesting efficacy (high antibody titers, initial reported trial results) and limited evidence of safety (from poorly-conducted studies that they assumed were legit) and rounded that up to the miracle product that would fill a gaping vaccine-shaped hole in the archetypal story playing out.
I say this because I have participated in a parallel phenomenon, in the world of alternative energy research. It is assumed (or at least it still was ten years ago) that we will inevitably develop cheap and abundant energy sources to replace fossil fuels. So researchers focus on metrics that are improving (solar panel efficiency, battery energy density, wind turbine power output) and translate that directly to "this will save the world" while filling all of the other critical uncertainties (cost, lifespan, scalability, resource requirements) with warm and fuzzy hopes and beliefs. We're solving the most important problems, the engineers will take care of the details.
In the energy world, those ignored details usually result in failed startups, investment money poured down the drain, and a world that still runs on coal and oil. In the public health world, those ignored details can result in millions of deaths.