The developments in Israel are very interesting. Unfortunately we only have the all-cause mortality data till Jan 30th. There is something really odd though: the all-cause mortality is rising in tandem with the rise of the infections, but much less in tandem with C19 mortality. The last week of data shows this. On Jan 23 the all cause mortality stood at 29% and the C19 mortality at 8.07 per million. On Jan 30 the all-cause mortality was 28% but the C19 mortality was a hefty 35.72 per million, more than 4 times the previous week while all-cause mortality declined! Next week will show if this is an administrative blip, but I have reason to believe it isn't.

In the second part of last year we saw something similar in Europe: the all-cause mortality moved in tandem with the amount of infections, but C19 mortality did not expain the excess all-cause mortality as total C19 mortality was only about 25% of total all cause mortality.

My conclusion is that it seems like the majority of the excess mortality is caused or triggered by the Corona virus, but it is mostly not Covid19. I don't have the biomedical knowledge to understand how this can be.

Boccaccio