ecosophia | Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 6

The semi-open posts I've hosted here on the Covid-19 narrative, the inadequately tested experimental drugs for it, and the whole cascading mess surrounding them have continued to field a gargantuan (and increasing) number of comments, so I'm opening another space for discussion. The rules are the same as before:

1. If you plan on parroting the party line of the medical industry and its paid shills, please go away. This is a place for people to talk openly, honestly, and freely about their concerns that the party line in question is dangerously flawed and that actions being pushed by the medical industry et al. are causing injury and death. It is not a place for you to dismiss those concerns. Anyone who wants to hear the official story and the arguments in favor of it can find those on hundreds of thousands of websites.

2. If you plan on insisting that the current situation is the result of a deliberate plot by some villainous group of people or other, please go away. There are tens of thousands of websites currently rehashing various conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 outbreak and the vaccines. This is not one of them. What we're exploring is the likelihood that what's going on is the product of the same arrogance, incompetence, and corruption that the medical industry and its tame politicians have displayed so abundantly in recent decades. That possibility deserves a space of its own for discussion, and that's what we're doing here.

3. If you don't believe in treating people with common courtesy, please go away. I have, and enforce, a strict courtesy policy on my blogs and online forums, and this is no exception. The sort of schoolyard bullying that takes place on so many other internet forums will get you deleted and banned here. No, I don't care if you disagree with that: my journal, my rules.

With that said, the floor is open for discussion.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

The more proficient and dedicated posters who crunch data say we just don't have enough good data, well sorted, and thorough enough, to do apples-to-apples comparisons on the vaccine vs. no vaccine. Our best shot is to go for All Cause Mortality, requiring just two categories, vaxxed or unvaxxed, and maybe age adjusted.
"What the study found was that from March 2020 to January 2021, 36% of Covid cases in the hospital were mild or asymptomatic. From January 2021 to June 2021, during the Delta variant's spread, that number rose all the way to 48%. For vaccinated hospital patients, the number rose to a stunning 57%." From the Veterans study -
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-study-suggests-almost-half-all-covid-hospitalizations-january-june-had-mild-or ()
Okay, snapshots aren't conclusive. We aren't looking for conclusive. We will know more later. Some assumptions built in are 1) symptomatic cases ended badly for unvaxxd 2) "Unvaxxd" includes recent jabs (less than 14 days) and probably more...but anyway taking those assumptions or lack of them at face value, all in all (probably, since there are mitigating factors pro and con, like many were already vaxxed in January, even though not a majority), what did they achieve? Assuming they sort of even out, you could look at it as a gain of 21% points corresponding to the rise in vaccinated status, which went from say 25% to 50% of the population, roughly (someone may know better numbers here). Now the ruling assumption on THE OTHER SIDE is that this 12% difference in the vaxxed versus unvaxxed break out equals lives saved. Which we can for sake of argument grant them, if we multiplied whatever that number was by the symptomatic mortality rate.
https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/ ()
According to these numbers, there are 260K new COVID cases today. A 12 point differential in symptomatic vs. asymptomatic is compared against 1800 deaths, so we reduce by 12% of whatever the ratio is between vaxxed/unvaxxd, so lets say 6% (again, this assumes there is an equal ratio between rise in symptoms and mortality, which is not confirmed or known precisely. We know this is inaccurate from the CDC's own data:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html (). Mortality is clustered around AGE, not symptoms - this anecdotally, is why they ran the recent story around Unvaxxed linked to ICU or hospital visit, rather than mortality. But whatever, give them extra numbers). So 108 unnecessary deaths a day, ignoring that it clusters on age, and ignoring elders are more likely to "vax", and assuming we could get them all the vax for the sake of illustration.
Now...this is interesting. We could take this in all kinds of directions, comparing 108 daily deaths against past all cause mortality (again, this favors the vaxxed argument, so I'm comfortable resting my case on it, as we are in "peak" or close to peak Delta, and it doesn't take into account the "paying it forward factor" of losing a lot of people you WON'T lose in the next 2 years (this statistical fact will be used to claim the vaccine "worked"). So stick to pre-2020 All Cause Mortality as against present. I previously calculated or estimated that All Cause is up by roughly close to the 600K figure. However, taking in another direction, you factor in iatrogenic error/nosocomial infection/malpractice (300K deaths a year in good ole USA, Britain admits to 10K GETTING COVID in hospital, etc.), and you're still not sure exactly what you're seeing. How many people died because they WENT to the hospital? Where this gets really interesting is the ALL CAUSE MORTALITY breakout and what you're allowing possibility for, which I think the net should be strict but broad and wide.
I don't think this old Irish funeral home undertaker is consciously lying:
https://thereisnopandemic.net/2021/09/08/deaths-jumped-250-when-injections-began-lindie-naughton-interviews-funeral-director-john-olooney/ ()
Still, someone can say the rise in deaths happened to occur because we got the vaccine just a little too late...there are a lot of special pleading arguments going on when parsing data on the Vax side of things. But even so, the ONE actual scientific study we have that is Phase 3, double blind, placebo controlled, for 8 months, by Pfizer itself, shows that 20 vaxxed died ALL CAUSE, and 14 placebo. So, as the commenter put it, we killed 7 people to save 1 person. This SHOULD SHOW UP IN ALL CAUSE MORTALITY. I can't imagine them faking the data on this one, and if they did, it's actually much worse.
https://www.skirsch.com/covid/TFNT4.pdf ()
Bottom line - vaccine will decrease risk of short term mortality from being classed as COVID (assuming they even test you), and certainly of social shaming or losing your job. Beyond that, the All Cause doesn't look very good, from where I stand. And I am hearing more and more local anecdotal stories. Of course, even this can be spun nicely. After all, the death rate while appalling by American standards (of yore anyway), is still relatively low for any including the very ancient of days. And since your risk of VAERs is (for now) a "known" low (although undoubtedly higher than they will tell you), statistically, you will probably survive being vaxxed and even infected, no matter what. Victory! But you would have only increased your chances 12% or so from turning symptomatic and risking social shame of being an ICU case. But we can afford them the 12% number (again, that's why they ran the article this way - https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/08/cdc-unvaccinated-5-times-more-likely-get-covid-19 ()). What we are interested in is real deaths, not hospital operating costs (they are paying 600 dollar shift bonuses in many places for over time). It's the all cause that will give you apple-to-apples, since the disparity caused by only the older cohort being vaxxed is disappearing and we can compare all cause across the spectrum of age. This additionally shifts it away from a Corona-based argument (if you are vaxxed, and never tested, but die from something tangentially related to Corona, possibly, are you a "stat" or not?), and into more known and calm waters. We can QED the hidden ADE later (based on work now), maybe all what we need to know right now for the Jab are All Cause apples-to-apples comparisons from previous years and going forward, adjusted for the fact mortality will DROP some now due to herd culling of the vulnerable, from here on out. We will probably know much, much more by December...especially if they approve it for children. That may be truly a bridge too far, as ANY shift in all cause in that group will show up quickly and have few competitors to screen out. Going on the record, with a hat tip to JMG and Mark L, I will put my chips on ADE immune tolerance being the biggest factor going forward for the vaxxed. Thanks to all those who are doing the hard work of sorting difficult scientific papers and looking for the wave hidden in the surf. - Celadon

Addendum: It's interesting that when they "fact check" the embarrassing data,
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-delta-vaccinated-idUSL2N2OD2CJ
the assumption seems to be, "well, old people just die at 5 times the rate that younger people do". This ignores the decade distinctions (90 year old has much, much higher rate than, say, 70 year old, who is not assuming they will die at 5 times the rate of a young person), and it also relies on a tacit argument of, "well, the rate of vax death is still very low" - but then, equally, the rate of death from virus is even lower! Again, these blunderations should get ironed out (infallibly) in the all-cause stats, which are much harder to "spin", as long as we know vaxxed/unvaxxed. - Celadon

(bows low to JMG in thanks, and apologies for messing up url code - assuming form of Phosphorescent Refulgent Unicorn)

Open (More or Less) Post on Covid 6

The Numbers

Re: The Numbers