I do QA for a living and so wanted to chime in here as I'm very sensitive about that seemingly innocuous word "works". Even in small engineering teams, defining what it means for something to "work" and then proving that it does is a complex activity and requires involves several categories of professionals. "Works" means "does what we want" and also "doesn't do what we don't want". The problem is that many of those definitions are unstated and can change imperceptibly over time.
Assuming you are in the world's most lockdownable city of Melbourne, Australia, the definition of the what it means for the lockdowns to "work" has changed over time as follows:-
- lockdown 1: flatten the curve/protect the hospital system - lockdown 2-5: get back to 0 cases so the state border can open and so nobody dies before the vaccine arrives - lockdown 6: ostensibly to get back to 0, but really to terrorise the public into taking the vaccine
According to those definitions, the lockdowns have "worked". But "works" also means "doesn't do what we don't want". Here is a shortened list of just the worst of these:
- cause massive economic damage - cause unnecessary deaths from other illness not including covid - remove two years of social and educational development from an entire generation of children - cause elderly people especially and all people in general not to be able to see their own families and friends with associated mental health issues - significantly weaken the structures of law and democracy - ruin Australia's international reputation with unknown consequences for tourism, higher education, diplomacy etc.
It's only by ignoring all these things that we can even pretend that the lockdowns "worked".
no subject
Assuming you are in the world's most lockdownable city of Melbourne, Australia, the definition of the what it means for the lockdowns to "work" has changed over time as follows:-
- lockdown 1: flatten the curve/protect the hospital system
- lockdown 2-5: get back to 0 cases so the state border can open and so nobody dies before the vaccine arrives
- lockdown 6: ostensibly to get back to 0, but really to terrorise the public into taking the vaccine
According to those definitions, the lockdowns have "worked". But "works" also means "doesn't do what we don't want". Here is a shortened list of just the worst of these:
- cause massive economic damage
- cause unnecessary deaths from other illness not including covid
- remove two years of social and educational development from an entire generation of children
- cause elderly people especially and all people in general not to be able to see their own families and friends with associated mental health issues
- significantly weaken the structures of law and democracy
- ruin Australia's international reputation with unknown consequences for tourism, higher education, diplomacy etc.
It's only by ignoring all these things that we can even pretend that the lockdowns "worked".